Prices of bread, meat and dairy 'to rise by 15% this summer' predict grocery analysts

·3-min read

The costs of food essentials are expected to increase by 15% over summer, experts have warned, as the cost of living crisis deepens.

According to the Institute of Grocery Distribution (IGD), the coming months will see a rise in prices for items such as meat, bread, fruit, vegetables and dairy.

The UK currently imports around 40% of its food, meaning a change in the global market has a direct effect on the costs of produce.

A report from the IGD has estimated the average monthly amount of money a family of four will spend on groceries will reach £439 in January 2023 — up from £396 the year before.

The prices are expected to remain until at least the middle of next year.

Read more: The simple chart that shows why your money isn't going as far

Cropped shot of young Asian woman carrying a shopping basket, standing along the dairy aisle, reading the nutrition label on the bottle of a fresh organic healthy yoghurt. Making healthier food choices
'Food stress' has already seen an increase in families skipping meals. (Getty)

IGD chief economist James Walton said the most vulnerable families will be the worst hit, and "food stress" has already seen an increase in families skipping meals.

"Sadly, many households in the UK struggled with food bills before the current inflation event began," he added.

"With prices for energy, motor fuel and food rising fast, more households are moving into this vulnerable group."

The IGD added the UK is facing the highest cost of living pressures since the 1970s, putting large parts of it down to the Ukrainian war.

Russia and Ukraine are each major global grain exporters, but since the invasion at the end of February have been unable to meet their normal quotas.

As such, other nations are struggling to get hold of the product, sending costs soaring.

Read more: The everyday value food items that are actually falling in price

CPI inflation is at its highest level in 40 years. (ONS)
CPI inflation is at its highest level in 40 years. (ONS)
EMBARGOED TO 0001 THURSDAY JUNE 9 File photo dated 13/08/17 of an aerial view of terraced houses in south west London. Demand from prospective home buyers fell in May, in what could be a side-effect of the rising cost of living and higher interest rates, according to surveyors. Issue date: Thursday June 9, 2022.
Everyday families are facing spiralling living costs. (PA)

Which food items are going up in price the most?

Previous ONS figures have shown that some staple food products have seen huge price rises in the past year.

Margarine has seen the biggest spike, with prices rising by 34.8% in the year to March 2022.

Oil, not including olive oil, increased in price by 18.1%, and lamb and goat prices rose by 16.9%.

Bread has gone up in price by 5.2%, and whole milk is 7.4% more expensive than a year ago.

Read more: Bank of England poised to hike interest rates to 1.25% in battle against inflation

The chart below illustrates the gap between the rises in inflation and pay growth. (Yahoo News)
The chart below illustrates the gap between the rises in inflation and pay growth. (Yahoo News)

There has also been a striking difference between pay growth and inflation.

While average pay is increasing, it is doing so at a slower rate than inflation - the increase in the price of something over a period of time — which hit 9% in the year to April 2022 in the UK, the highest rate for 40 years.

In short, this means people's money won't go as far.

The ONS said that in real terms (adjusted for inflation), regular pay fell by 2.2% in February to April 2022

Last week, prime minister Boris Johnson warned of a "wage-price spiral" if pay packets were to increase in line with inflation.

He said: "We can’t fix the increase in the cost of living just by increasing wages to match the surge in prices.

"When a country faces an inflationary problem you can’t just pay more and spend more, you have to find ways of tackling the underlying causes of inflation.

“If wages continue to chase the increase in prices then we risk a wage-price spiral such as this country experienced in the 1970s.”