’Pretty grim’: Scary bushfire warning
Parts of Australia are facing a dangerous bushfire season, and the devastating 2019-2020 Black Summer fires are predicted to become the new norm by 2040.
Temperatures from April to October have been above, to very much above, average in almost the whole country. Adding to the problem is strong rainfall in years past adding to the build-up of grasslands that could catch fire throughout 2024.
Bureau of Meteorology modelling has indicated Australia is on track to swelter through one of its hottest summers on record.
The agency’s summer forecast is for “unusually high temperatures”.
Its modelling shows average temperatures across the country will be about 1.5C above the running baseline.
As a result, there’s a likelihood of more extreme heat days, extended severe heatwaves and particularly high humidity.
During a media briefing, the Climate Council’s Greg Mullins AO, AFSM, a former Fire and Rescue NSW commissioner, warned that the “future is pretty grim” for Australia.
“We’re not very cheerful for firefighters. If it doesn’t rain, we worry about extreme fire danger and if it does rain, we go, ‘Oh no it’s fuel for future fires’,” he said.
Mr Mullins said this summer’s combination of dangerous grass build-up and extreme heat was likely to cause massive grass fires throughout 2024.
“We’re one heatwave away from a massive grass fire,” he said.
Separate Australasian Fire and Emergency Services Authorities Council research warns that large areas of the Northern Territory, Victoria and parts of NSW, Western Australia and South Australia have an increased risk of bushfires this summer.
“Australia recorded its warmest spring on record, with also severe rainfall deficiencies occurring across parts of the country, setting the stage for high fire risk this summer,” it said.
This extreme weather condition in 2024 is predicted to become the new norm, with the Australian bushfire season set to get even worse according to the Climate Council.
“Bushfire conditions are changing exponentially, and that is caused by global warming, that’s where we are heading,” Mr Mullins said.
“So what does that mean for the future? By 2040, the sort of conditions we had in 2019 will be an average summer for Australia.”
Mr Mullins said the extreme weather conditions of 2040 would seem “exceedingly cool by 2060” and “he doesn’t even know what fires will look like” under this scenario.
The 2019/20 Black Summer (September 2019-February 2020) fire disaster in southeast Australia was unprecedented.
These fires resulted in 33 direct fatalities, with more than 3000 homes burned down and 17 million hectares of land destroyed, devastating lives and regional economies. Such was the extreme event, more than over 80 per cent of Aussies were exposed to dangerous air pollution, which researchers said could have led to 417 more deaths.
