Oil Edges Higher as Investors Eye US Election, Tropical Storm

(Bloomberg) -- Oil edged higher as the tight US presidential election looms over global markets while a tropical storm threatens production from the Gulf of Mexico.

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West Texas Intermediate rose 0.7% to settle near $72 a barrel. The price had earlier risen as much as 1.7% before paring gains and even briefly turning negative. Brent advanced 0.6% to settle above $75.

Tropical Storm Rafael is threatening disruptions at US offshore oil and natural gas platforms, with its path on target to affect about 1.7 million barrels of daily output. Chevron Corp. shut in its production in the US Gulf while Shell Plc is evacuating some non-essential personnel in the area.

Injecting more uncertainty, polls suggest the race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris remains close. The outcome is likely to reshape US trade, foreign, security and climate policies and may hold far-reaching consequences for commodity markets.

A second Trump administration is expected to be more welcoming to the US shale industry and more skeptical of renewables. Separately, RBC Capital Markets LLC has said such an outcome may shift foreign policy and bring the possibility of tighter sanctions against Iran, but looser curbs on Russian oil flows.

The current US administration “hasn’t enforced any sanctions,” said Amrita Sen, director of research at consultant Energy Aspects Ltd. “In fact, it’s encouraged people to buy Iranian oil because that’s what keeps prices down. Just enforcing Iranian sanctions would be enough to take 1 million barrels off of the market.”

The US benchmark has lost more than 10% since the end of June on disappointing Chinese demand and rising supply from the Americas, a trend that prompted the OPEC+ alliance to push back a plan to restore production. Saudi Arabia lowered oil prices for buyers in Asia for December, a sign that sluggish demand in China is outweighing tensions in the Middle East.

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--With assistance from Alex Longley.

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