NRCC chair predicts GOP sees net gain in House but ‘not going to be double digits’

National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) Chair Rep. Richard Hudson (R-N.C.) on Tuesday said he anticipated House Republicans would pick up seats, but the net gain is “not going to be double digits.”

“I’m confident we’ll hold the majority. As far as what the net gain will be, I’m not sure,” Hudson said in an interview with The Hill the afternoon of Election Day.

“It’s not going to be double digits, I don’t think. You know, I just think there’s so many close races,” Hudson said. “But I’m confident we’ll hold … I honestly don’t know what the final number’s going to look like.”

House Republicans have a historically slim majority, and Democrats need a net gain of at least four seats to win control of the lower chamber.

Election analysts see the House as essentially a toss-up. And because of the high number of competitive races in states that take longer to count ballots, like California, a final result may not be clear for days or weeks.

“California will probably take a week, like usual,” Hudson said of the timing of election results. “New York may take a little longer, and we’ve got a number of contested races in both.”

But Hudson said he believes the NRCC will have a good sense of where things stand by Wednesday morning.

To get a sense of which way the results are going, Hudson is looking to bellwether races in states that are expected to have results relatively early on Election Night in Virginia, North Carolina, and Michigan.

One of those is Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District, where Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Va.) faces a challenge from Democrat Missy Cotter Smasal.

“If she holds on, that’s a good sign,” Hudson said.

And if Republicans win in Virginia’s 7th District, an open seat where Republican Derrick Anderson is up against Democrat Eugene Vindman, “that’s going to be a sign that it’s going to be a really good night for us,” Hudson said.

Hudson also has his eye on Michigan’s 7th District, an open seat where Republican Tom Barrett faces Democrat Curtis Hertel; Maine’s 2nd District, where Republican former NASCAR driver Austin Theriault aims to take out Rep. Jared Golden (D); and North Carolina’s 1st District, where first-term Rep. Don Davis (D) faces Republican Laurie Buckhout.

Hudson will be monitoring election returns Tuesday night from the House GOP campaign arm headquarters in Washington, watching out for any irregularities. So far, he said, the NRCC had not seen any major that caused concern.

Just before Hudson spoke to The Hill, Capitol Police announced they had arrested a man at the Capitol Visitor’s Center who “smelled like fuel” and had a torch and a flare gun.

“It’s concerning,” Hudson said of the arrest. “You know, we watched as leftists burned down our major cities [in] the summer 2020. So I am concerned, if President Trump wins, what kind of violence we might see from the left.”

Asked if he was concerned about the potential for violence if Trump loses, Hudson responded: “No.”

Trump supporters who refused to accept his loss in 2020 broke into the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, as Congress met in a joint session to certify Trump’s win. But Hudson still said he was not worried about the potential for violence from his supporters angry about a loss.

“No. I mean, January 6th, you had a small group of agitators that started a riot at the Capitol,” Hudson said. “I don’t think the circumstances are there for that to happen again. What I worry about is the violence from the left. You’ve got a number of groups that burned down our cities in the summer of 2020. I think those groups are still out there. So that’s concerning me. I’m not concerned about our side if the election goes the other way.”

Hudson pointed to three NRCC areas of focus that are giving him confidence about the election: hybrid ads, field offices, and the emphasis on early voting.

“The committee pays for half the ad, the candidate pays for half, but we’re able to buy the time at the candidate rate,” Hudson said of the hybrid ads, adding that they make each dollar go further. “We’ve made a major investment in hybrid ads this time around.”

He also pointed to the NRCC opening more than 40 field offices, or “battle stations.”

“I feel like the last couple cycles, national parties have gotten away from ground game, and we made a major investment in our ground game this time around,” Hudson said.

The NRCC also worked with the Republican National Committee on the “bank your vote” program to encourage mail-in and early voting.

“If you look at the early vote results, particularly like North Carolina, for the first time ever, Republicans out-voted the Democrats in early voting. So if you know, if we do our job today, continue to turn out our vote, I think that’s gonna be a difference-maker,” Hudson said.

Many Republicans anticipate that Hudson might make a play to be chair of the powerful House Energy and Commerce Committee if Republicans expand their majority. But Hudson declined to say whether he would seek that position, or seek to remain NRCC chair next cycle.

“At some point in the next couple days, I have to make a decision, but I really haven’t thought much about it,” Hudson said.

House GOP internal leadership elections are scheduled for next Wednesday, sources told The Hill. A Steering Committee meeting to select chairmanship positions has not yet been scheduled.

In the meantime, Hudson is preparing to watch the results come in.

“I’ll make sure I’m stocked on Zyn,” Hudson said, talking about the nicotine pouch brand.

But don’t expect him to reach for a Celsius, the energy drink that is popular on Capitol Hill.

“Red Bull is opening a canning facility in Concord, N.C. So, if I need an energy drink, I’ll probably reach for a Red Bull,” Hudson said.

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