If the top three picks play out like many are expecting, the landing spots for Justin Fields and Trey Lance will become one of the NFL draft’s most intriguing storylines.
The top two slots in Thursday night’s first round seem to be sure things at this point. Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence will go No. 1 to the Jacksonville Jaguars and BYU QB Zach Wilson will go No. 2 to the New York Jets.
Next in line could be Alabama QB Mac Jones. Ever since the San Francisco 49ers traded up to the No. 3 spot, the rumblings about Jones’ fit with coach Kyle Shanahan have been constant. Yahoo Sports’ Eric Edholm stuck with Jones at No. 3 in his final mock draft, and Jones remains the betting favorite (-200 at BetMGM) to go third overall.
Should Jones indeed be the pick at No. 3 (it’s not considered a lock like Lawrence and Wilson), the options for Lance and Fields, the next two quarterbacks on the board, become very intriguing — especially from a betting perspective.
Trey Lance NFL draft prop bets
Let’s start with Lance. Lance played just one full season at North Dakota State, the same program that produced Carson Wentz. He played spectacularly, putting up 2,786 passing yards, 1,100 rushing yards and 42 total touchdowns en route to an FCS national title.
The current over/under for Lance’s draft slot at BetMGM is 6.5 with +150 odds attached to the over and -190 odds on the under. Lance could certainly end up being the pick for the 49ers at No. 3. His odds to go third are currently +225, not too far behind Jones at -200.
Lance currently has -175 odds to go in the top five and -800 odds to go in the top 10.
And because of the uncertainty surrounding the No. 3 pick, the 49ers have top the odds among teams to potentially choose Lance at +240. Behind the 49ers are the Carolina Panthers (+300), New England Patriots (+400), Denver Broncos (+700), Detroit Lions (+700), Atlanta Falcons (+800), Washington Football Team (+900) and Chicago Bears (+1000).
The Panthers and Broncos made a trade on Wednesday that certainly warrants consideration when considering these draft props. The Panthers shipped Teddy Bridgewater, their starting QB in 2020, to Denver in exchange for a late-round pick. The Panthers, who hold the eighth overall pick, already acquired Sam Darnold from the Jets earlier this offseason, but are very much still in play to pick a quarterback like Lance. Denver now has both Bridgewater and Drew Lock, the team’s 2019 second-round pick, but neither of those quarterbacks is considered a long-term solution. The Broncos choose ninth.
The Patriots have the No. 15 pick, but have had a glaring need at QB since the departure of Tom Brady. Could Bill Belichick trade up and grab Lance as his QB of the future? Washington (No. 19) and Chicago (No. 20) are also possible trade-up candidates.
Justin Fields draft props
Fields has a larger body of work at a higher level of competition for teams to consider. The five-star recruit began his career at Georgia but transferred after serving as the Bulldogs’ backup as a true freshman. He landed at Ohio State and thrived in Ryan Day’s offense, throwing for 5,373 yards and 63 touchdowns with two top 10 Heisman finishes.
In terms of the NFL draft, a lot of what applies to Lance also applies to Fields. The over/under for his draft position is set at 7.5 at BetMGM with -110 odds on the over and -115 odds on the under. Clearly even the oddsmakers are having trouble projecting where Fields could end up.
We can start at least in the top 10 as a likely outcome for Fields as BetMGM has set the odds at -450 for that draft range. Fields’ odds of being the No. 3 pick are +275. His odds of being a top 5 pick are +100.
Most of the same teams are the betting favorites to land Fields. It’s the Patriots with the best odds at +250. Next are the 49ers (+275), Panthers (+300), Lions (+500), Broncos (+700), Falcons (+1000), Bears (+1100) and Washington Football Team (+1100).
BetMGM also offers a prop bet on which player, Lance or Fields, will be drafted earlier. Lance is the favorite there with -125 odds. Fields is +100.
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