Trevor Lawrence has been hyped as the best NFL prospect in many years, ever since his fantastic freshman season at Clemson.
It will be hard to bet against him being the best rookie in this class, too.
BetMGM released the odds for NFL offensive and defensive rookie of the year, just a couple days before the draft starts. The favorite for the offensive award is no surprise.
We've known for a couple years that if Lawrence wasn't the best rookie in his class, it would be a big upset. Now there are odds to validate that.
Trevor Lawrence leads the odds for rookie award
Handicapping the rookie of the year race is difficult before knowing landing spots. We know Lawrence is going to the Jacksonville Jaguars and it's a strong likelihood that Zach Wilson goes to the New York Jets. After that, who knows.
The odds for someone like Travis Etienne change significantly if he lands with a team in which he'll be the clear No. 1 running back. Trey Lance's chances to win rookie of the year change dramatically if he lands with the San Francisco 49ers, or a more offensively challenged team like the Chicago Bears.
But, it can be smart to get in front of the market. It would be nice to hold a ticket on Lance at +1600 just in case he lands in the perfect spot. Here are the odds at BetMGM:
And here are the odds for the defensive rookie of the year, led by linebacker Micah Parsons, with linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah and defensive end Kwity Paye tied for second:
Who could knock off Lawrence?
In the offensive rookie of the year odds, it's always smart to start with quarterbacks and work backward. Voters love quarterbacks.
Lawrence's odds to win are +225 and if there weren't four other potential Week 1 quarterback starters in the class, that would still seem like good value. Wilson at +550 being behind Fields at +350 is curious. Fields could win the award but he'd need to land in a good spot. Not many spots are worse than the New York Jets, so perhaps those odds are justified.
Mac Jones at +900 could look good if he lands with the San Francisco 49ers, because Kyle Shanahan has done wonders with other quarterbacks and the 49ers have talent. Lance at +1600 is perhaps the most interesting name on the board, considering he could put up big numbers passing and running.
A running back like Najee Harris or Etienne would need a big year to beat a quarterback, and that's multiplied for any receiver or tight end Kyle Pitts.
Quarterbacks get the benefit of the doubt in any awards voting. Lawrence comes in with years of hype and a reputation that is already pretty strong. It would take a heck of a season for anyone to beat him for rookie of the year.
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