NFL betting: The Patriots aren't the best playoff team, but they have the best coach
Room for error in the NFL playoffs is about as small as Jared Goff's hands. Weaknesses will be exposed, strengths will be exploited, and it all begins with the head coach. Before you place your hard-earned cash on a Super Bowl futures bet, consider this list of playoff coaches, ranked by their postseason records:
1. Bill Belichick, New England Patriots
Playoff record: 31-12 (.721)
Everything about Belichick screams GOAT, from his six championship rings to his gnarled hoodie sleeves. This is a coach whose mind is so cunning, the NFL has to spend part of the offseason banning whatever rule loopholes he took advantage of in the preceding playoffs. Belichick's 31 playoff victories are more than the rest of the AFC field combined. His postseason record without Tom Brady, though? Just 1-1.
First round matchup: (+4.5) at Buffalo Bills
Odds to win the Super Bowl: +2000
2. Bruce Arians, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Playoff record: 5-2 (.714)
Arians is a perfect 4-0 in the playoffs with Brady, after going 1-2 as Arizona's head coach. His superteam from last year recently lost one of their star receivers to a season-ending injury, and then another to a season-ending mutiny.
First round matchup: (-9) vs Philadelphia Eagles
Odds to win the Super Bowl: +850
3. Kyle Shanahan, San Francisco 49ers
Playoff record: 2-1(.667)
The Niners coach has been part of the two biggest collapses in Super Bowl history. Shanahan served as offensive coordinator for Atlanta when the Falcons failed to score in the last 27 minutes of Super Bowl LI, blowing a 28-3 lead to the Patriots and losing in overtime. As a head coach, he took San Francisco to the big game in 2019, where the Niners held the ball and a 10-point lead against the Chiefs with less than 12 minutes to play. Shanahan abandoned the running game that had been gashing Kansas City and lost 31-20.
First round matchup: (+3) at Dallas Cowboys
Odds to win the Super Bowl: +2000
4. Mike McCarthy, Dallas Cowboys
Playoff record: 10-8 (.556)
Should McCarthy have won more than a single championship in his 13 years with the Packers, 11 of which featured one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time? Probably. Should he have at least made it past the NFC championship more than once? Absolutely.
First round matchup: (-3) vs San Francisco 49ers
Odds to win the Super Bowl: +1200
5. Andy Reid, Kansas City Chiefs
Playoff record: 17-15 (.531)
Reid is 6-2 in the playoffs with Patrick Mahomes as a starter, including a championship in 2019 and an AFC title last year. He's favored to win his conference for a third consecutive season.
First round matchup: (-12.5) vs Pittsburgh Steelers
Odds to win the Super Bowl: +500
6. Mike Tomlin, Pittsburgh Steelers
Playoff record: 8-8 (.500)
Instead of wasting your money on a Steelers Super Bowl ticket, may I suggest donating to a local charity or perhaps even an international scam?
First round matchup: (+12.5) at Kansas City Chiefs
Odds to win the Super Bowl: +6600
7. Sean McVay, Los Angeles Rams
Playoff record: 3-3 (.500)
McVay has now made the postseason in four of his five years as a head coach, advancing as far as the Super Bowl in 2018. His Rams stumbled to the finish line this season, going 5-4 in their last nine games.
First round matchup: (-4) vs Arizona Cardinals
Odds to win the Super Bowl: +1000
8. Matt LaFleur, Green Bay Packers
Playoff record: 2-2 (.500)
"LaFleur" is French for "the flower," and the Packers' skipper has wilted in his first two postseasons, bidding the playoffs adieu in the NFC championship each time. Can the man with the highest career winning percentage of any NFL coach with at least 45 games under his belt (.796) string together three wins to return the Lombardi trophy to Green Bay?
First round matchup: BYE
Odds to win the Super Bowl: +400
9. Mike Vrabel, Tennessee Titans
Playoff record: 2-2 (.500)
The Belichick disciple is one of the favorites to win coach of the year and made a Cinderella run to the AFC championship in 2019 by knocking off the Patriots and Ravens on the road. Clinching the top seed allowed Derrick Henry an extra week of rest before his imminent return.
First round matchup: BYE
Odds to win the Super Bowl: +750
10. Sean McDermott, Buffalo Bills
Playoff record: 2-3 (.400)
McDermott twice went one-and-done in the postseason before breaking through and making the AFC championship last year. Their defense allowed the fewest points in the league this season. If Josh Allen plays even close to the MVP level he was on a couple months ago, the Bills can run the table.
First round matchup: (-4.5) vs New England Patriots
Odds to win the Super Bowl: +700
COACHES WITH NO PLAYOFF EXPERIENCE
Kliff Kingsbury, Arizona Cardinals
After winning their first seven games, the Cardinals went 4-6 down the stretch. It's hard to trust a team that lost four of their last five games going into the playoffs.
First round matchup: (+4) at Los Angeles Rams
Odds to win the Super Bowl: +1800
Zac Taylor, Cincinnati Bengals
Taylor was 6-25 and firmly on the hot seat entering this season. An improved offensive line and defense, coupled with a prolific offense, helped his Bengals win the AFC North.
First round matchup: (-6.5) vs Las Vegas Raiders
Odds to win the Super Bowl: +2000
Rich Bisaccia, Las Vegas Raiders
It's been an eventful year for the Raiders. Bisaccia went 7-5 in his 12 games as interim head coach following Jon Gruden's resignation. He capped things off with an overtime walk-off field goal as the clock struck zero in the last game of the NFL season to send Las Vegas to the playoffs.
First round matchup: (+6.5) at Cincinnati Bengals
Odds to win the Super Bowl: +5000
Nick Sirianni, Philadelphia Eagles
The last rookie head coach to win a Super Bowl was the San Francisco 49ers' George Seifert in 1989. Anything is possible when you can run the ball, and no team does it better than the Eagles. Is a 2021 Philly Super Bowl victory crazier than Nick Foles winning MVP?
First round matchup: (+9) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Odds to win the Super Bowl: +6600
Stats provided by Pro Football Reference, teamrankings.com and nfl.com.
