Making a Super Bowl bet in February seems odd. Free agency doesn't start for a few more weeks. The draft is two months away. Rosters are going to change a lot before any games are played.
But if you anticipate the right change for a team, you can get good odds before they shift against you. And it's easy to see the New York Jets being the team that has the biggest shift in odds in the next month or so.
The Jets are one of the perennial losing franchises that is creeping up the Super Bowl odds. They're +2500 to win next season's Super Bowl at BetMGM. That's tied for the ninth-best odds. That could be a lot shorter with one big move, and we all know the big move that could be coming. It seems realistic, too.
Could Jets land Aaron Rodgers?
The Jets are the one team that could take the biggest leap this offseason with a change at quarterback. Many of the other pieces are in place, or attainable with a good offseason.
It has to be hard for the Jets to get their hopes up for landing Aaron Rodgers after seeing the ruin it caused the Denver Broncos over the past two offseasons. The Jets already hired Nathaniel Hackett as their offensive coordinator, the exact same kind of suboptimal move the Broncos were making in hopes of landing Rodgers. If the Green Bay Packers or Rodgers do what they've done the past couple years and decide he'll return after an offseason of drama, or if Rodgers retires, the Jets could be scrambling.
But maybe this is the offseason Rodgers finally switches teams. There's good reason for the Packers to entertain a trade. The Jets are the most obvious trade partner. They didn't hire Hackett because they loved his work with the Broncos last season.
Rodgers didn't have a great 2022 season, and there's a lot of risk in assuming any quarterback not named Tom Brady can be effective after his 40th birthday (Rodgers turns 40 in December). But it would be easy to get excited for the Jets if they get Rodgers. They'd suddenly become a popular pick to at least win the AFC East.
And the odds would change in a significant way.
Jets are building fast
The Jets were a good team with a terrible quarterback situation last season. They were in playoff contention deep into the season, which is remarkable considering how bad their quarterback play was. With a good quarterback, the Jets would be dangerous.
The Jets have the offensive rookie of the year (receiver Garrett Wilson) and defensive rookie of the year (cornerback Sauce Gardner) and running back Breece Hall probably would have beat Wilson for the offensive award had he not injured his knee. The Jets defense is very good. Rodgers could transform the offense, which has plenty of weapons already.
If the Jets can land Rodgers, or a good Plan B like Derek Carr, the biggest problem betting them for the Super Bowl is they play in the AFC. The AFC East has a strong defending champion in the Buffalo Bills, and the Miami Dolphins were excellent when Tua Tagovailoa was healthy. Even if the Jets can get past the rest of the AFC East, teams like the Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals aren't going anywhere.
But the Jets' odds are enticing right now, with the Rodgers possibility looming. The only real reason to bet a Super Bowl future now is if you feel you can get ahead of the market and beat a drop in the odds. Anticipating those big moves can be difficult, but sometimes you can see them coming. Rodgers to the Jets, or even Carr to the Jets, seems plausible. Maybe a bet on the Jets now will end up being a bust if they can't land a quarterback, but that's the risk and reward in betting a Super Bowl future in February.
If the Jets land Rodgers, the odds will dip. If you think that move will happen and that it would make the Jets a Super Bowl contender, now is the time to bet it.