Philadelphia Eagles running back Boston Scott has had a five-year NFL career where he's played mostly special teams and a depth role in the running back room. However, when Scott sees the New York Giants on the other sideline, he becomes a different player. His 60-game NFL career can easily be split into two categories: eight games torturing the New York Giants and 52 games as a depth option. Scott has seen 34% of his career rushing yards, 43% of his receiving yards and 59% of his touchdowns come against the New York Giants.
Despite his domination of New York, Scott has played on less than 15% of offensive snaps for Philadelphia this season. As a result, he's a solid +350 long shot to find the end zone on Saturday night. Scott has slightly increased his role over the last few weeks of the season, eclipsing Kenneth Gainwell as the second-most used running back in Philadelphia behind Miles Sanders. In Week 17 and 18, Scott was on the field for 33% of offensive snaps. With his domination of New York and his slightly increasing role, Scott is an intriguing bet to find the end zone. What other plus-money touchdown scorers are worth a look this week?
Jaguars vs. Chiefs expected to be high scoring
With the total set at 53 points, oddsmakers are certainly expecting a high-scoring affair between the Kansas City Chiefs and Jacksonville Jaguars to kick off the divisional round on Saturday afternoon. That means plenty of options are in play for anytime touchdown bets, but I'm focused on one for each team that pays out at plus-money.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire went down in late November, allowing Isiah Pacheco to take over the early down role in the Kansas City running back room. However, almost as importantly, it expanded the role of Jerick McKinnon. McKinnon has certainly taken advantage of the opportunity and rewarded bettors and fantasy players over the last two months.
Since early December, McKinnon has nine touchdowns in six games. He has three games with multiple touchdowns and has scored at least once in every game of that stretch. McKinnon is a pass-catching weapon on third down and plays a pivotal role in the red zone. Edwards-Helaire returned to practice but is not expected to play this week, meaning it's status quo in terms of roles in the Kansas City backfield. Fire up McKinnon to find the end zone at +110 odds.
On the other side, we can assume that the Jaguars will be playing from behind in this game as they are 8.5-point underdogs. That forces us to look towards their top pass-catching option in Christian Kirk. Kirk scored in the wild-card round and he scored in the regular season finale. He's gotten 22 targets over those two games. When the Jaguars met the Chiefs earlier in the season, Kirk caught nine passes on 12 targets and turned that into 105 yards and two touchdowns. Kirk is +125 to score a touchdown on Saturday.
Isaiah Hodgins has been hot
For Philadelphia, Boston Scott has three touchdowns this season. Two of those came against the New York Giants. Overall in his career, Scott has 17 scores. Ten of those have come against New York. He has killed the Giants throughout his career, making him an extremely intriguing bet to find the end zone at +350. At those odds, it's hard to ignore the narrative.
On the other side of this matchup, the Giants might have quietly found a very good wide receiver off the scrap heap. In November, the Giants claimed Isaiah Hodgins off waivers from Buffalo and he's been a focal point of their offense ever since. He finished the regular season by scoring touchdowns in four of five games. In last week's win against Minnesota, Hodgins went off for 105 yards and a touchdown on eight receptions.
Hodgins has been Daniel Jones' favorite target in the red zone with a team-leading 66.7% end zone target share since Week 13. He will likely see a lot of James Bradberry and Darius Slay, who have struggled a bit down the stretch, posting 107.1 and 127.7 passer ratings allowed, respectively, since Week 14. Hodgins is +220 to score a touchdown on Saturday night.
A pair for Sunday
If it's not broken, don't fix it.
After scoring last Sunday against Miami, Dawson Knox now has touchdowns in five straight games. In fact, he almost had multiple touchdowns last weekend. He caught a pass in the end zone that was originally ruled a touchdown, but replay review revealed he didn't complete the catch.
Knox has developed into one of Josh Allen's favorite targets in the red zone. On his touchdown last weekend, it was a clear designed play for Knox where Allen sprinted out and had only one target in mind. Knox came down with an impressive catch. He also has an ability to get open after Allen leaves the pocket and scrambles. It's clear the Bills quarterback has trust in his tight end.
Despite his recent tear, Knox is still +200 to score a touchdown on Sunday. Those are more than good enough odds for a red zone target that clearly has the trust of his quarterback.
The final game of the weekend takes place in Santa Clara where the San Francisco 49ers host the Dallas Cowboys. The 49ers are 4-point favorites.
I am looking towards targeting the Cowboys secondary. Dallas has serious secondary issues outside of Trevon Diggs. With Dallas likely to devote a lot of energy into slowing down Deebo Samuel and George Kittle, I'm pivoting towards Brandon Aiyuk, who is in line to have a big game against Xavier Rhodes and Daron Bland.
Aiyuk has quietly eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards on the season and he's been a reliable target for Brock Purdy. Aiyuk has at least 50 receiving yards in five of six games that Purdy has started, and he's scored two touchdowns. That number would have been three, but he had an end zone drop last weekend against Seattle.
Chris Godwin was Tampa Bay's most effective receiver last weekend against Dallas as he worked the middle of the field and compiled 85 yards. Aiyuk runs plenty of crossing routes and makes big plays over the middle of the field, so I expect him to have similar success against this Dallas secondary. Aiyuk is +180 to score a touchdown on Sunday night.