Hurricane likely to brew in Caribbean, may reach US
The Caribbean Sea has been an area AccuWeather meteorologists have been watching since Oct. 21 for tropical storm formation. Indications continue to point toward a named storm developing within the next couple of days with quick escalation to a hurricane and potentially threatening the United States Gulf Coast late in the week to the second weekend of November.
On Saturday afternoon, AccuWeather hurricane experts designated an area in the Caribbean Sea as a tropical rainstorm. This is done to raise awareness and allow residents and visitors in the affected areas ample time to make the necessary preparations. As of Sunday afternoon, the National Hurricane Center designated this area as Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen. At midday on Monday, the feature was upgraded to a tropical depression.
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A hurricane warning was issued for the Cayman Islands on Monday, while a tropical storm warning has been in effect for Jamaica.
Waters in the Caribbean remain warm enough to help foster additional organization and strengthening. Disruptive breezes, called wind shear, also remain low in the region. AccuWeather experts are calling for a tropical storm to form by Monday night and a hurricane by Tuesday afternoon.
"The brewing tropical storm is expected to make a turn across Jamaica and Cuba this week, bringing heavy downpours and gusty winds to those islands." AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alan Reppert said.
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A wide swath of 1-2 inches of rain is expected to occur across Jamaica northward into Cuba. Heavier rain of 4-8 inches can occur close to the track of the storm over western Cuba and central Jamaica with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 14 inches in the highest terrain.
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"This rain can lead to flash flooding, landslides and difficult travel in parts of Jamaica and Cuba," Reppert said.
As the brewing tropical system moves northward and gains strength, wind gusts will increase across the region. Eighty to 100 mph gusts are forecast with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 110 mph expected close to where the center of the storm moves over land.
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Due to the rain and wind, the AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes is a 1 for Jamaica and Cuba.
Beyond the northern Caribbean, AccuWeather hurricane experts say there are a couple of options on the table for the path of the brewing tropical storm.
"The future track will depend on the movement of a dip in the jet stream more than 1,000 miles away over the U.S. next week," AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.
"If that jet stream dip pushes far enough to the east, it will tend to scoop up the tropical feature and possibly draw it across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and into South Florida," Rayno explained. "But, if the jet stream dip lags to the west, the tropical feature may push into the western or central Gulf of Mexico, where it could threaten areas as far to the west as Louisiana or Texas. There's also the possibility it continues due westward and diminishes over southern Mexico."
Tropical storms and hurricanes originating in the Caribbean this time of the year have previously experienced a highly curved or boomerang track. Hurricane Mitch from 1998 and Tropical Storm Keith from 1988 are examples.
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"There has never been a tropical storm or hurricane landfall in Texas, Louisiana or Mississippi during November and December," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. "So that would be quite a milestone, but this does not mean that people along the central and western Gulf coast should let their guard down."
This has been a hurricane season of unusual happenings ranging from Beryl's intensity so early in the Caribbean to the lull in activity that occurred during prime time in late August to early September.
Five officially named systems have made landfall in the U.S., and another yet unnamed tropical storm struck the Carolinas. The record number of landfalls in the U.S. in a single season was in 2020, with a dozen rolling ashore.
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Should it evolve and track into the central or eastern Gulf Coast, there may be an avenue for rain to advance across the eastern U.S. toward the middle of the month. The same jet stream dip may help to pull the feature and its moisture northward. While such a track would bring the risk of flash flooding, it may also reach areas where rain is needed due to abnormally dry to drought conditions.
"A track into South Florida would translate to little or no rain over the mainland of the Southeast states, but a track more along the central Gulf coast would allow the potential for rain to push well to the north," DaSilva said.
Because a less intense hurricane or tropical storm is likely to make landfall relative to Helene and Milton, impacts from rain would correspondingly be less severe but still significant, DaSilva added.
Tropical Storm Patty formed just west of the Azores early Saturday morning and is tracking east and losing wind energy. However, as a tropical wind and rainstorm it will push into Portugal and Spain prior to midweek.
There are two areas being monitored for tropical development close and just to the north of the Caribbean over the southwestern Atlantic through Nov. 9.
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Because the area near and southeast of the Bahamas is in a zone of much higher wind shear, it is less likely to develop. However, its proximity to land warrants close monitoring.
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The next two names on the list of tropical storms for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season are Rafael and Sara.
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