NASCAR betting: Kyle Larson leads his Hendrick teammates as Dover favorites

·3-min read

Hendrick Motorsports swept the top four spots at Dover in 2021. Oddsmakers took notice ahead of Sunday’s race at the concrete one-mile track (3 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1).

Hendrick drivers are four of the top five favorites at Dover despite the complete change in cars from 2021 to 2022. Sunday’s race is the first at Dover with the new Cup Series car, a vehicle that is built and drives far differently than the previous car did.

And while HMS has been very good at Dover in recent years, other teams have visited victory lane regularly too. Hendrick drivers have four wins in the past 10 races. So does Joe Gibbs Racing. And Kevin Harvick won in 2018 and 2020 for Stewart-Haas Racing.

Dover may also race completely differently than it has in years past with the new car too. The track had become one of the most boring on the Cup circuit thanks to tire and aerodynamic rules and track position was at a premium for drivers. Fans will benefit greatly if drivers are able to more easily pass on Sunday, though that’s far from a guarantee. Shorter tracks haven’t been the best venue for this Cup car so far in 2022.

Here’s what you need to know if you’re looking to bet Sunday’s race. All odds are from BetMGM.

TALLADEGA, AL - APRIL 24: Teammates Kyle Larson (#5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet) andChase Elliott (#9 Hendrick Motorsports NAPA Auto Parts Chevrolet) race side by side during the running of the NASCAR Cup Series Geico 500 on April 24, 2022, at Talladega Superspeedway in Talladega, AL. (Photo by Jeffrey Vest/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott are the top two favorites for Sunday's NASCAR race at Dover. (Photo by Jeffrey Vest/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

The favorites

  • Kyle Larson (+475)

  • Chase Elliott (+800)

  • William Byron (+800)

  • Martin Truex Jr. (+1000)

  • Alex Bowman (+1200)

  • Joey Logano (+1200)

  • Kyle Busch (+1200)

  • Ryan Blaney (+1200)

  • Denny Hamlin (+1200)

With five drivers at +1200 we had to expand the favorites category this week. Larson has an average finish of seventh at Dover in 13 starts with seven top fives and 10 top 10s. Elliott has eight top fives in 11 starts while Truex has 18 top 10s in 31 career starts. Both Truex and Kyle Busch have three wins at the track while no one else in this group has more than one.

Good mid-tier value

  • Kevin Harvick (+1400)

  • Tyler Reddick (+1600)

Harvick also has three wins at Dover and should win a race in 2022. Of course, we said that last season about Harvick and he ended up going winless. Reddick has finished no lower than 18th in his three Dover starts and was eighth in 2021.

Don’t bet this driver

  • Chase Briscoe (+2000)

Briscoe has Stewart-Haas Racing’s only win in 2022 but isn’t worth a shot at +2000 this week. He should do far better than his 35th-place finish in his Cup Series debut at Dover in 2021, however.

Looking for a long shot?

  • Daniel Suarez (+4000)

There are a ton of drivers with worse odds than Suarez but at 40-1 he’s got bad enough odds to be called a long shot. Suarez’s average finish at Dover is 13.2 and his Trackhouse Racing team has shown speed in 2022.