Mapped: Where has Russia made advances on the frontline in Ukraine?
Ukrainian forces defending the eastern region of Donetsk are heading into the “moment of maximum tension” as Russian forces rush to take territory ahead of Donald Trump’s inauguration next year, war monitors have claimed.
Mr Trump’s comprehensive victory in the US election, which came off the back of his promises to end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours, has brought into sharp relief the difficult situation on the frontline for Kyiv.
Russian forces have continued to make gains in the eastern region of Donetsk, advancing along several fronts towards the city of Pokrovsk, a linchpin of the wider area’s defence.
Moscow has also mobilised thousands of North Korean soldiers to push back the Ukrainian incursion into the border region of Kursk, with some success.
Exactly how Mr Trump’s promise to end the war in 24 hours plays out remains to be seen but several unofficial proposals have included plans to freeze the frontline.
Whether or not either Ukraine or Vladimir Putin will accept those concessions is also unclear, but the incentive for Russia to seize as much territory as possible is self-evident.
The past few months have seen Moscow seize territory at their fastest rate since March 2022.
Below, we look at the two hotspots of fighting.
Russia’s months-long attack in the direction of Pokrovsk has led to Moscow capturing more than 300 square miles of territory since seizing the city of Avdiivka in February.
It has come at great cost, with western intelligence officials estimating Russia has suffered its highest monthly military personnel losses in the past few months since the start of Moscow’s full-scale invasion, averaging between 1000 and 1,200 a month.
Nevertheless, a wide bulge can now be seen protruding from the Russian frontline into Ukrainian-held territory of the Donetsk region, towards Pokrovsk.
The region makes up one half of the area known as Donbas – the other half is Luhansk, which is almost entirely controlled by Russia – and has been the site of fighting between Russia and Ukraine since 2014.
Russian president Vladimir Putin has made no secret of his desire to control the entire Donbas.
The Centre for Defence Strategies (CDS), a Ukrainian security think tank, says the upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will be “the climax of the enemy’s offensive operations” this calendar year.
“October and partially November become the moment of maximum tension for both sides in the entire 2024 campaign,” they added.
In its latest update, Ukraine’s military said there were more than three dozen Russian attacks in the Pokrovsk direction in the last 24 hours.
Immediately to the south, at the bottom of the bulge, there were a further 93 attacks in the Kurakhove direction.
Russia’s defence ministry, meanwhile, claimed they had taken control of the town of Kreminna Balka. The Ukrainian military acknowledged the settlement was under attack but stopped short of saying it was under Russian control.
In the past month, after the fall of Vuhledar, the Russians have also pushed nearly 10 miles towards the settlements of Maksymivka and Trudove. There were six Russian attacks in that area over the last 24 hours, say the Ukrainian military.
This has created a S-shaped frontline in Donetsk, in which the bulge towards Pokrovsk is followed by a dent around Kurakhove, followed by a secondary bulge.
Concerns abound that the shape of these attacks now leaves Ukrainian forces fighting in Kurakhove at risk of being encircled.
Further north, in the Russian region of Kursk, around 10,000 North Korean forces are reportedly helping Moscow’s soldiers to push back a Ukrainian attack.
Their effectiveness has come under question for several reasons, not in the least because they lack any combat experience and there remains a language barrier with their Russian counterparts, but US secretary of state Anthony Blinken reported the Pyongyang forces have been heavily-armed.
Earlier this week, Ukrainian and North Korean troops engaged in small-scale fighting for the first time, which amounted to the start of Pyongyang’s direct involvement in the war, Ukraine’s defence minister Rustem Umerov told South Korea’s public broadcaster KBS in an interview.
He added that he anticipates around five North Korean units, each with approximately 3,000 soldiers, will be stationed in the Kursk region.
Kyiv’s forces launched the daring cross-border assault into Kursk on 6 August, capturing hundreds of square miles of territory, but in recent weeks have lost ground on the western side of the attack.
The main city of Sudzha, on the eastern side of the attack, remains in Ukrainian hands.