Manchester Intensive Care Will Be Overwhelmed By November 12, No.10 Claims
Greater Manchester hospital intensive care beds will be overwhelmed with coronavirus patients by November 12 in a best-case scenario, Downing Street has claimed.
Hitting back at Andy Burnham’s claims that Boris Johnson was “exaggerating” the seriousness of infections in Manchester, No.10 outlined the latest data informing negotiations on the city entering a tier 3 local lockdown.
The prime minister’s official spokesperson said cases continue to rise in Greater Manchester, with infections among over-60s tripling in the most recent 15 days where full data is available.
Currently, the number of Covid-19 patients in intensive care in the city is around 40% of the number seen at the height of the first wave of the pandemic in spring.
Given hospitalisations occur two to three weeks after transmission, Downing Street expects that number to rise “significantly” over the next few weeks.
Under projections that assume hospitalisations double every 14 days – which the spokesperson said was a best-case scenario outlined by the government’s SPI-M scientific committee – all free intensive care capacity will be used by October 28.
Hospitalisations will go past the peak of the first wave by November 2, they predict, while Covid patients would take up the city’s entire intensive care capacity by November 8, and the entire surge capacity by November 12.
Surge capacity is built by local NHS managers freeing up space in hospitals.
But the figures do not take into account extra beds at Nightingale hospitals, including one in Manchester that is currently being prepared for potential reopening.
Asked if the projections meant hospitals being overwhelmed by November 12, the spokesperson said: “Yes, that’s the entire surge ICU capacity.”
It comes as Johnson and the Greater Manchester mayor are locked in a standoff over whether the city should enter “very high” coronavirus restrictions, with Burnham apparently holding out for more financial support.
The PM’s official...
