Lula Fights to Boost Leftist Protege in Sao Paulo Mayoral Race

(Bloomberg) -- It is difficult to ignore the similarities between Brazil’s Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and the young congressman he is backing in the race to lead the country’s biggest city.

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With a thick beard, roots in progressive social movements and a booming, raspy voice he typically aims at Brazil’s ruling elite, Guilherme Boulos often seems like a modern version of the 78-year-old leftist leader now in the midst of his third term as president. They even cheer for the same soccer team.

But in a heated Sao Paulo mayoral contest that could bolster his status as Lula’s likeliest successor, Boulos is now navigating a reality that has complicated the Brazilian left’s previous searches for an heir: Mimicking Lula on the stump, it turns out, is much easier than replicating his striking political success — especially among the poor.

Boulos, 42, is locked in a dead heat with incumbent Ricardo Nunes and right-wing insurgent Pablo Marcal ahead of a first-round vote in the city Lula won by seven points two years ago. With none likely to win a majority, the top two are almost certainly headed for a runoff later this month.

At stake is more than just the job overseeing the city’s $150 billion economy and nearly 12 million residents: The race has also become a proxy battle between Lula and right-wing predecessor Jair Bolsonaro ahead of the next presidential vote in 2026.

Lula has thrown his weight behind Boulos, a combative anti-poverty activist who honed his political voice as a leader of Brazil’s Homeless Workers Movement and has put the vast income inequality that afflicts Latin America’s financial capital at the heart of his campaign.

“What we have today a is a humanitarian crisis,” Boulos said in an interview, pointing to estimates that Sao Paulo’s homeless population tops 80,000. “This should not be an issue of the left or right. It’s an issue of humanity and human sensibility.”

Struggles With the Poor

The message seeks to strike the note Lula has long sung in an attempt to soothe the fears his leftist policy prescriptions inspire in many investors and moderate voters: That it is possible to improve the lives of Brazil’s poorest and most marginalized “without taking anything from anyone,” Boulos said.

“What I advocate for is reducing social inequalities and no one needs to feel threatened by this,” he added. “Combating inequality is good for everyone.”

That has succeeded in winning over a sizable share of Sao Paulo’s wealthiest residents, among whom Boulos holds a narrow lead, according to a Datafolha poll released Thursday. What it hasn’t done, despite the focus on poverty and Lula’s endorsement, is lock down the poor voters that typically form the backbone of the president’s support.

Boulos has made gains in recent weeks, but still trails Nunes by six points among Sao Paulo’s lowest-income voters, the poll found.

It is not a new problem. Unlike Lula, a former trade unionist who grew up poor and has little formal education, he is the son of two doctors and graduated from one of the country’s most prestigious public universities. On the campaign trail, he often recounts his decision to abandon his middle class comforts to live among the homeless at 18, casting his advocacy as a lifelong passion.

“Since I was kid, one thing I never accepted was to see people thrown out on the street,” he said.

But he has long faced assertions from skeptical opponents and observers that he is more popular among a growing class of educated, socially progressive Sao Paulo residents than with the poor.

Boulos exceeded expectations in his first mayoral campaign four years ago, advancing to a runoff. But he lost low-income neighborhoods on the city’s northern outskirts that Lula went on to win two years later. Even in the poorer neighborhoods he won, Boulos posted significantly smaller margins than Lula later amassed.

He improved on the performance in 2022, winning more votes than any other Sao Paulo congressional candidate. And Lula, who waged three unsuccessful bids for president before winning in 2002, has signaled that he sees the potential for Boulos to follow a similar trajectory.

He initially took notice of Boulos, who pushed back on the idea that he’s a possible Lula heir, when the activist led a protest against the government during his first term in office. Hours before going to prison in 2018 on a corruption conviction that was later overturned, Lula commended Boulos for organizing demonstrations in his support, telling him he had a “bright future” ahead.

“Lula looks at Boulos and sees himself but forty years younger,” said Thomas Traumann, a political analyst and former press secretary for leftist President Dilma Rousseff.

‘A Strong Mayor’

The president has deployed the machinery of his leftist Workers’ Party to boost Boulos in Sao Paulo. Marta Suplicy, a Workers’ Party veteran whose social programs made her popular in the city’s poorest corners during her time as mayor from 2001 to 2005, joined the ticket as his running mate. Finance Minister Fernando Haddad, another former Sao Paulo mayor, has campaigned alongside him too.

Poverty remains his primary focus: Boulos wants to use public funding and tax incentives to stimulate job creation, increase economic opportunities and expand access to doctors and medical care in the city’s underserved outskirts. He makes the case that candidates from the right don’t have the interests of poor voters in mind.

“Look at the content of its policies, its proposals and its admirers,” Boulos said. “It’s a pro-billionaire extreme right.”

Boulos has also expanded his message to include the persistently high rates of crime that plague Sao Paulo and rank as voters’ top concern ahead of the election: “What Sao Paulo needs is a strong mayor to do what has not been done,” he said in a recent TV ad, pledging to double the number of local law enforcement officials.

Security is top of mind for voters like Maria Souza, a 60-year-old who watched a recent Boulos campaign rally from her shop in Heliopolis, a favela in the southern part of the city. A long-time Lula supporter, she’s leaning toward voting for Boulos on Sunday. Worries about whether he’ll prioritize the city’s crime problems have nevertheless left her hesitant.

“You can’t turn on the news without hearing awful stories, like people getting killed over cell phones,” she said. “I don’t leave home at night anymore.”

--With assistance from Gabriel Diniz Tavares and Daniel Carvalho.

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