Labor looks unlikely to win the marginal seats it needs to form government at next Saturday's federal election.
Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and Opposition Leader Bill Shorten have devoted many campaigning hours to marginal seats, particularly in NSW and Queensland.
But the latest Galaxy Research poll, published in Saturday's News Corp papers, shows Labor may win only two of those crucial seats, well short of the 21 extra seats it needs to form government on July 2.
The poll of more than 500 voters in each of 18 marginal seats across Queensland, NSW, Victoria and South Australia was conducted between Monday and Wednesday last week, just after Mr Shorten's campaign launch.
The opposition is struggling to get the four per cent swing it needs.
The Liberal Party is ahead in most of its six marginal seats in NSW - Dobell on the Central Coast, plus the western Sydney seats of Banks, Gilmore, Lindsay, and Reid.
Only in Macarthur is the vote split 50-50 on a two-party preferred basis, while sitting MP Fiona Scott is the only one to have lost ground in her seat of Lindsay, where the Labor campaign launch was held.
In Victoria the poll suggests Labor would also fall short in the key marginal seats of Corangamite and Dunkley, with the CFA dispute having a significant impact.
"The swing to Labor across these seats may have been bigger had it not been for the decision by Daniel Andrews and the state government to support the United Firefighters Union," Galaxy's David Briggs said.
But Labor is expected to do better in Queensland, where it will hold a second campaign launch on Sunday, and pick up the two seats - the ultra-marginal seats of Petrie (in Brisbane) and Capricornia (Rockhampton).
Labor's biggest swing out of the six Queensland seats polled is in Wyatt Roys seat of Longman. But despite Labor picking up 4.3 per cent on its primary vote, the junior minister is still ahead by 53 to 47 per cent two-party preferred.
Meanwhile, in Tasmania, Labor could pick up Lyons, while Bass and Braddon could go either way, a new ReachTEL poll in the Hobart Mercury says.