Le Pen Takedown of Barnier Holds Lessons for Next French PM
(Bloomberg) -- France’s outgoing prime minister Michel Barnier learned a hard lesson his successor should also know. There is no placating Marine Le Pen.
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On Monday last week, he called the leader of far-right National Rally at 8:30 a.m. in an eleventh-hour bid to salvage his budget bill and his government and pretty much offered all she wanted. They came to an agreement and she went for lunch with her right-hand man Jordan Bardella. Then she asked for more. That’s when he knew this wasn’t about concessions or getting the budget done, according to a person familiar with the conversations who spoke on condition of anonymity.
Le Pen’s decision to join forces with the left to bring down Barnier was a display of power that confirmed her outsize leverage in French politics, but also raised questions on what her ultimate political strategy is. Her betrayal of Barnier would indicate she’s determined to bring down President Emmanuel Macron before his term ends in 2027. While he seems just as determined to frustrate her.
This account of the behind-the-scenes negotiations is from people privy to the budget drama. It reveals how Le Pen was willing to extract concession after concession from Barnier, leading him into a false sense of security, only to pull the rug from under him at the last minute.
Macron appointed Francois Bayrou on Friday and the 73-year-old centrist will experience soon enough Le Pen’s modus operandi. Her treatment of Barnier, formerly the chief negotiator of Brexit for the European Union, gives an inkling of what her style will be like going forward, no matter how many premiers are rolled out in what increasingly appears to be a thankless job, a sacrificial lamb at the hands of Le Pen’s whim.
During their call last Monday, Barnier told the far-right leader he was willing to drop a key measure to reduce the reimbursement of medicines for patients. He wouldn’t stop there. Barnier told her he would publicly acknowledge he made the concession for her and her voters. Le Pen agreed to Barnier’s terms, according to the person who is close to the outgoing prime minister.
Le Pen then said she would meet with her party chief, the 29-year-old Bardella, and check in with the premier later that afternoon.
At a high-end Italian restaurant in the upscale 6th district of Paris, the far-right duo celebrated the previous concessions made by Barnier – dropping a plan to raise electricity taxes, cutting medical aid for foreigners, and potentially a new immigration bill for 2025.
Barnier’s office meanwhile published a statement at 1:30 p.m. that said he would give up on the plan to cut medical reimbursement, explicitly citing this as a Le Pen ask, while underscoring the political sacrifice he was making to placate her. Barnier expected this would all but ensure the budget bill’s safe passage and secure his government’s future – at least for the time being.
Then came the call from Le Pen around 2 p.m.
Le Pen told Barnier that while she was satisfied with the concessions he had made on corporate taxation, she now also wanted him to abandon a budget provision that would have effectively reduced pensions from January – a measure that was set to deliver roughly €900 million ($944 million) to fill gaping holes in the nations public finances.
This is when Barnier realized that Le Pen was planning to vote for his ouster — regardless of the extent to which he agreed to cave on her demands.
At 2:40 p.m., Barnier announced at the National Assembly that he would invoke a constitutional provision to pass the budget bill which would lead to a subsequent no-confidence vote and his demise. Barnier’s term was the shortest for a prime minister in the history of the Fifth Republic, lasting just three months.
Barnier’s office declined to offer comment on the story. A spokesperson for the National Rally didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment on this account.
A poll earlier this week showed that Le Pen’s decision has played out well for her. Her ratings have risen, solidifying her position as the frontrunner in the next presidential election in 2027.
Hardline ideas that she has long promoted, especially on immigration and law enforcement, have become priority themes within traditional centrist parties.
“Our views are dominant in French society and this is reflected in our weight in the National Assembly,” Aleksandar Nikolic, a National Rally spokesperson and European lawmaker, said in an interview. “No prime minister can survive in the job without our backing.”
But her political strategy may come at a price in the long run as some critics saw the toppling of Barnier as a self-damaging move. The decision to pull the trigger on the French premier in the middle of a fiscal crisis has also revived the National Rally’s reputation as a party unfit to govern, a perception she has long fought against.
“The move against Barnier might have pleased some voters, but it also scared conservatives who were leaning toward her,” said Jean Garrigues, a political historian. “She is trying to embody the real opposition to Macron, the one that carries the voice of the people, but many people see this as basic populism.”
In recent years, Le Pen has assiduously worked to improve the image of her anti-immigrant party in the public eye as she aims to broaden her party’s appeal. Her move from fringe to front of pack has been due in large part to her willingness to renounce her political heritage: where the overt racism of her father Jean-Marie Le Pen consigned him, over a long career, to no better than a distant second place, she has sought to soften some of his more divisive rhetoric and to reassure business over her economic policies.
Her efforts have led to historic results for her party at the ballot box. She delivered a crushing defeat to Macron’s party at the European elections this summer. And her party came out on top in the first round of the legislative elections that followed after Macron dissolved parliament.
Her ascent was cut short only after centrist and leftists coalesced in the second round. Despite the political maneuvering, her party is now the largest in the French National Assembly.
The National Rally is now walking a fine line between being the face of a responsible force that could potentially lead the nation, and agents of chaos, according to two party officials who requested to speak anonymously. Le Pen seeks to keep maximum pressure on Macron, betting France becomes ungovernable to the point that he is forced to resign, which he has ruled out.
Some political observers say her decision to vote for Barnier’s dismissal was driven in part by her political fragility.
Le Pen risks missing out on the nation’s next presidential race altogether in 2027, after prosecutors asked for an immediate five-year ban on her running for office at the end of an embezzlement trial in which she is accused of misusing EU funds. A ruling in the case will be delivered on March 31. If Macron were to resign before then, Le Pen, in theory, would have a shot at the ultimate prize in a new presidential election: the Elysee Palace.
(Updates with name of new PM in fifth paragraph.)
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