Large storm to unleash flooding, severe weather in south-central US
A multifaceted storm will bring the potential for flooding downpours and severe thunderstorms to the central and southern Plains over the coming days while dropping heavy snow in the southern Rockies.
AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok noted that the track and strength of this storm are similar to what you would typically see in a springtime severe weather setup with one notable difference.
"Dew point temperatures (a measure of moisture in the air) are high for late fall, but not to the same values that you would see in May," Pastelok said. Thunderstorms have more moisture and energy to feed off with higher dew point temperatures.
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Although moisture levels are not as impressive as in a springtime setup, AccuWeather Severe Weather Expert Guy Pearson says they are "just enough to reach the threshold for severe weather to develop," albeit on a less widespread scale.
Showers and thunderstorms broke out across the western half of Texas on Thursday night. Thunderstorms along part of the I-10 and I-20 corridor can produce hail and locally damaging wind gusts.
"As this slow-moving storm finally starts to move out of the Four Corners region on Friday, we'll have storms progress farther to the east across the southern Plains," Pearson said.
Larger metro areas along I-35, including Dallas and San Antonio, will be at risk of damaging thunderstorms that can produce hail, damaging wind gusts and downpours. The highest concentration of thunderstorms is expected to arrive during the Friday afternoon and evening commute, threatening to slow travel on the roads and create temporary ground stops at the airports.
"We also can't completely rule out an isolated tornado on Friday," Pearson said.
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Despite the region's drought, flash flooding concerns will be elevated, even outside the severe weather risk zone. Into Friday, chilly rain will soak the panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma northward into the western half of Kansas, and 2-4 inches of rain can fall within this zone, with locally higher amounts.
"Some of the areas at risk for heavy rain and damaging thunderstorms in the coming days just dealt with flooding and severe storms last weekend and earlier this week," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Bill Deger noted.
"Some of the downpours from this system will overlap areas hit hard by torrential downpours and flooding with the last system," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist and Flood Specialist Alex Sosnowski said. "The St. Louis area recently received two months worth of rain in less than two days, which has caused the Meramec River to surge out of its banks to major flood level. The new round of rain coming can be enough to bring a secondary surge on the Meramec and other rivers in the region."
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Sosnowski added that the major rivers will be affected in a much smaller way by the rains as these major rivers, such as the Missouri and Mississippi, were running at very low levels and can absorb a significant amount of rain over their basins.
"Any rainfall over the Mississippi and Ohio River basins would be beneficial in terms of bringing water levels up slightly from their very low levels," Sosnowski said. "The ultra-low levels are affecting navigation of tug and barge operations this fall."
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From Friday night into the weekend, the storm's rain shield will disperse across the Midwest and Great Lakes region, reaching the Northeast later this weekend and early next week.
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