Labour Has Big Lead on Manifesto Day, Poll of Polls Shows

(Bloomberg) -- With Labour set to reveal its manifesto of election promises on Thursday, Keir Starmer’s opposition party is sitting on a large lead in national polling that shows little sign of ebbing halfway through the campaign.

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As of Thursday, Keir Starmer’s party was on 44.1% versus 22.4% for the Conservatives in Bloomberg’s composite, a rolling 14-day average using data from 11 polling companies. That gives them a margin of 21.7 points — unchanged from Wednesday morning.

The Conservative rating is its lowest since late October 2022, in the immediate aftermath of Liz Truss’s disastrous 7-week premiership. Compounding the governing party’s misery, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party — which many Conservatives fear will take away the party’s voters on the right — has risen to 12.9%, its highest polling number of the campaign so far.

The gap between Labour and the Tories is little-changed from May 22, when Prime Minister Rishi Sunak surprised most Westminster observers by calling an early election.

The Tories have since rolled out a platform that includes some £17 billion ($21.7 billion) of annual tax cuts by the end of the next Parliament and eye-catching policies such as compulsory national service for teenagers — but with little impact on public opinion. That leaves Starmer on course to enter Downing Street as prime minister on July 5, the day after the vote.

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