Kamala Harris leaves DNC with huge momentum but close race with Trump looms

Kamala Harris left the wildly successful Democratic National Convention this weekend with a strong political wind at her back, capping a charmed month in which she grabbed the presidential nomination and completely upended a race that had been former President Trump’s to lose.

The Democratic nominee now turns to an important 2 1/2-week stretch through the Labor Day holiday and leading up to the expected Sept. 10 debate with Trump, the next big milestone in the race.

Harris needs to build on the enthusiasm of the party’s base that was clear to all at the Chicago convention, lay the foundations of a successful race, especially in the seven battleground states, and maintain at least a narrow lead in polls, analysts on both sides of the political aisle say.

“Harris should ride the wave of emotion that has lifted her party and attracted at least the open-minded curiosity of some undecided swing voters,” said Lawrence Levy, a Hofstra professor who studies political trends in suburbia.

Tom Watson, a New York-based Democratic strategist, warned that Harris should remain laser-focused on building an edge in the handful of swing states that will almost certainly determine the winner of the White House.

“Trump (could still) either eke out a slim victory in some of those states or corrupt the counting and certification process,” Watson said. “Democrats have to fight hard on every front. To me, that’s what the tougher-than-you-are Harris speech signified: a deadly seriousness of purpose.”

Political experts traditionally expect each candidate to get a bounce in polls during and after their party’s convention. But the calculus was scrambled this year by the political earthquakes of the assassination attempt on Trump, which caused a brief but intense flood of sympathy, and Biden’s unprecedented decision to pull out of the race on the weekend after the Republican National Convention ended.

Harris quickly blunted any momentum Trump may have held with a lightning-quick consolidation of party leaders followed by a series of crowd-pleasing rallies. She struck political gold by picking Tim Walz to be her vice presidential running mate, as he has wowed supporters with his folksy small-town charisma.

Then Democrats pulled off a political masterstroke with their convention, deftly managing Biden’s departure from the campaign and enlisting Democratic heavyweights like Hillary Clinton and Barack and Michelle Obama to back Harris.

Harris leaves Chicago with a 2-3% edge in polling averages and slight leads in the Rust Belt’s blue-wall battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin that she needs to win.

The race is a dead heat in the Sun Belt swing states of Arizona and North Carolina, with Trump narrowly ahead in Nevada and Georgia.

While ecstatic Democrats may hope the trend will continue, political pros say it’s more likely that the race will settle back into a near dead heat as Harris’ bounce fades.

Harris remains behind the polling benchmarks set by Biden in 2020 and Hillary Clinton in 2016, when Trump stormed back to win.

“Harris had a spectacular week, culminating a remarkable month,” tweeted Democratic strategist David Axelrod. “But this is a closely divided country and the race now will be a pitched struggle for every inch of terrain in the battleground states.”

The debate is shaping up as the next major inflection point in the race, with a huge audience likely to tune in to see Harris’ first-ever clash with Trump.

Analysts warn Harris to set aside ample time to prepare for the event and not to underestimate Trump’s ability to dominate the stage as swing voters may watch closely for signs of weakness against the bombastic former president.

Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia political scientists, urged Harris to devote significant time to preparing for the debate even if it means skipping some time on the campaign trail, calling it “the next signal moment in the campaign.”

Basil Smikle, a Columbia professor and Democratic strategist, said Harris does not need to demonstrate soaring oratory, but does need to show spine to stand up to Trump’s stunts.

“She needs to … demonstrate she can stand up to the bully and prosecute the case against him,” said Smikle, noting that the first early in-person voting starts just 10 days after the debate.

Republicans doubt Harris is up to the task. Scott Jennings, a GOP-aligned analyst, predicted that Harris will stumble when she has to think on her feet and speak without notes.

“The debate is huge,” Jennings said. It “may be the only time Harris does anything meaningful that isn’t reading from a teleprompter.”

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