'Heatwaves and extreme weather': July was the second hottest month ever

July was the second hottest month in global history.

According to data published on Thursday by Copernicus, the Earth Observation component of the European Union's space programme, the air temperature averaged 16.91°C.

The margin with July 2023, the hottest month on record, is very slim. At the same time last year, the temperature rose to 16.95°C.

However, the past month set another record.

"We saw the two hottest days on record. So July was also a record month in its own way, even if the average for the month as a whole is slightly lower than that for July 2023", explains Julien Nicolas, a climatologist at Copernicus.

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This data brings to an end a cycle of 13 consecutive monthly records for global temperatures, which began in June last year. However, for Copernicus experts, the margin between the indications observed between 2023 and 2024 is so small that it does not call into question the overall context of global warming.

"The consequences of global warming did not begin at the start of this series. We have been observing them for a number of years and the end of this series of records will not mark the end of the consequences of global warming either," warns Julien Nicolas.

"Heat waves and extreme weather events began before this series of records and they will continue afterwards".

A period of transition

For the climatologist, there is an explanation for the high temperatures in recent months. Julien Nicolas points out that this global rise coincides with the development of the El Niño phenomenon in the Pacific, which tends to warm the surface of the oceans and the planet.

However, the El Niño phenomenon ended a few months ago. The Pacific is now in neutral weather before the arrival of La Niña, the cold counterpart to El Niño, in the coming months.

"The fact that we are seeing temperatures that are slightly lower than those we observed a year ago is part of this transition between warmer-than-average conditions in the equatorial Pacific linked to El Niño and colder-than-average conditions expected towards the end of the year", notes Julien Nicolas.

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The arrival of La Niña will act as a brake on average global temperatures. However, the models and forecasts differ as to the intensity of the phenomenon that is about to occur.

This record-breaking cycle marks a turning point, since the average global temperature has reached or neared an increase of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, the limit set by the Paris agreement. This is the limit that must not be exceeded "to avoid the most catastrophic consequences of global warming", points out Julien Nicolas.

According to the climatologist, it remains to be seen whether the records observed in recent months "correspond to a tipping point or a radical change in the climate system". But Julien Nicolas points out that "we will have to wait a few years to really confirm this".