Jeremy Corbyn holds huge final rally as new survey shows he is close to shock election win in Islington North

Jeremy Corbyn could still pull off a shock win in Islington North, according to a new poll published with just over 12 hours to go before polls open.

Hundreds of supporters flocked to Highbury Fields where the former Labour leader, who is standing as an independent, held a rally on Wednesday night.

It came after a YouGov survey put him on 38 per cent of the vote, just behind Labour’s candidate, local councillor Praful Nargund, who was on 43 per cent.

But the pollster said the five-point gap meant it was a “toss up” who will win, a similar finding to a YouGov survey earlier in the election campaign.

As it published its latest MRP poll, which put the Tories facing a historic defeat across the country, it stated: “As in the previous iteration of our model, Jeremy Corbyn remains the strongest performing independent candidate.

“Our model has Labour only narrowly ahead in Islington North, and we’d regard the seat as a toss-up.”

An earlier poll by Survation, though, showed Labour winning more comfortably in Islington North.

RMT General Secretary Mick Lynch introduced Mr Corbyn on stage at the rally and told the hundreds-strong crowd: “When we get back to Parliament next week, Jeremy will be in our RMT group along with all the other socialists we can find remaining in the Labour party.”

Mr Corbyn told the Standard: “We have built a huge campaign. If elected and the incoming government does good stuff, fine, I will support them.

“But if they don’t end the two child benefit cap for example, if they don’t do something about levels of poverty in our society... then I will be that voice speaking up.”

Mr Corbyn’s campaign team has distributed many flyers for him in parts of the constituency.

But Labour should have a better organised campaign for Mr Nargund, given it is normally always harder for independents to match the resources of political parties.

In London more broadly, the Tories are set to see their seat tally of around 20 cut to just six, according to the findings.

They would hold onto only Old Bexley and Sidcup, Harrow East, Finchley and Golders Green, Romford, Hornchurch and Upminster, and Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner.

But in all these seats, apart from Old Bexley and Sidcup, the Tory lead is five points or less so they could easily swing to Labour.

London minister Greg Hands is set to lose in Chelsea and Fulham, as the Tories face wipe-out in Inner London, also seemingly heading for defeat in Cities of London and Westminster, and the new constituency of Kensington and Bayswater.

A number of the other seats that the Tories are set to lose, such as Orpington, are very much on a knife edge so they could do better than gaining just the six seat.

But Reform has eaten into the Tory vote, including in Orpington where Nigel Farage’s party is on 19 per cent.

The Standard has compiled an interactive map of all 75 constituencies in London so people can learn more about the key battlegrounds and other seats.

The Liberal Democrats are set to win three constituencies from the Tories, Wimbledon, Sutton and Cheam, and Carshalton and Wallington, doubling their number of seats in the capital, according to the poll.

So Labour would end up with 63 seats out of 75 in the city, with the Lib Dems and Conservatives both on six.

It would be Labour’s biggest percentage of seats in London, at 84 per cent, compared to the 77 per cent it won during Tony Blair’s 1997 landslide.

Across the country, YouGov’s central projection is Labour on 39 per cent, the Tories 22 per cent, Reform UK 15 per cent, the Lib Dems 12 per cent, and Green Party seven per cent.

These would result in 431 seats for Labour, 102 for the Conservatives, 72 for the Liberal Democrats, 2 for the Greens and 3 for Reform UK. The SNP have 18 seats in Scotland, and Plaid Cymru 3 in Wales.