Iran’s Nuclear Stockpile Grows Amid Simmering Israel Tensions

(Bloomberg) -- Iran’s nuclear-fuel levels rose over the last three months, the United Nations watchdog said, potentially ratcheting up tensions that have threatened to spill into a regional war.

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Monitors from the International Atomic Energy Agency reported Thursday that Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium increased by 16% between June and August, according to a 13-page restricted report circulated among diplomats and seen by Bloomberg. That’s enough to fuel a handful of warheads, should Iran make a political decision to pursue weapons.

“The continued production and accumulation of high enriched uranium by Iran, the only non-nuclear weapon state to do so, adds to the agency’s concerns” IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi said in the report, also noting the country continues to stonewall monitoring.

The IAEA’s safeguards report is the first since new Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian was elected in July. The reformist leader has said he’s keen to revive diplomacy over the country’s nuclear work, even as Middle East observers voice concern over a potential military clash with Israel.

Israel’s ongoing war with Hamas and tit-for-tat missile strikes with Tehran-backed Hezbollah have added urgency to the IAEA’s years-long search to uncover the scope of Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Concerns of a regional war grew after the Islamic Republic blamed Israel for the killing of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31, vowing to retaliate. Israel hasn’t taken responsibility for the assassination.

While the IAEA carries out daily inspections of declared atomic facilities, suspicions linger over whether Iranian engineers could be concealing work used for military purposes. Tehran has blocked the agency’s investigation into uranium particles detected at undeclared locations.

While Iran insists it isn’t looking to produce nuclear weapons, international mistrust prompted a negotiated compromise in 2015 that restricted atomic activities in exchange for sanctions relief. Recent statements by current and former Iranian officials that the country could revisit its nuclear doctrine — and potentially build a weapon — prompted Grossi to renew attempts at diplomacy on a visit earlier this month.

The IAEA report was published ahead of a Sept. 9 board meeting in Vienna, where Iran is facing mounting diplomatic pressure to cooperate with inspectors. The board slapped Iran with a resolution of censure in June in a step that could eventually lead to a referral to the UN Security Council for further action.

Iran’s stockpile of uranium enriched to 60% levels of purity — a level indistinguishable from weapons-grade fuel — rose to 165 kilograms from 142 kilograms June, the IAEA inspectors concluded. Inventories of 20%-enriched fuel grew to 814 from 751 kilograms.

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