Hurricane season update: What the US can expect into September, October

The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is right around the corner, and it is about to shift into gear around the same time that the calendar flips from August to September.

AccuWeather meteorologists have not wavered since the initial forecast was released on March 27, 2024, holding steady with predictions of a near-historic Atlantic hurricane season.

As of Aug. 14, five tropical systems, including two tropical storms and three hurricanes, had already formed. By the end of the year, AccuWeather expects 20-25 named storms and 8-12 hurricanes to form. Hurricane Beryl and Hurricane Debby both made landfall in the United States, and another two to four direct impacts are predicted.

Other than Ernesto, which is currently swirling off the East Coast of the United States, not much activity is anticipated through Aug. 24.

"It looks like that over the next 10 days or so tropical activity will be suppressed across the Atlantic due to another batch of dry Saharan dust that is moving off of Africa," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. "I think things could pick back up during the last week of the month and into September, as it looks like the dust will decrease."

This aligns with the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, which occurs around Sept. 10.

"We continue to remain concerned about the Texas coast, Florida Panhandle, South Florida and the Carolinas of seeing direct impacts for the rest of the season," DaSilva explained.

Florida and Texas have already been hit by landfalling hurricanes, and those same areas could face another brush with a tropical storm or hurricane before the season is over.

A satellite image of Debby as it made landfall as a Category 1 hurricane on Aug. 5, 2024. (AccuWeather)

Although the climatological peak of the hurricane season is Sept. 10, AccuWeather predicts the Atlantic basin will continue to churn out tropical storms and hurricanes throughout October and even into November.

"Sea-surface temperatures and ocean heat content are near record levels across most of the Atlantic basin. This can act like jet fuel for tropical systems," DaSilva said.

As of Aug. 13, the ocean temperatures across the northern Atlantic Ocean were significantly above the long-term average and could climb even higher through early autumn.

The unusually warm water can promote more tropical storms and hurricanes and quickly boost their strength. DaSilva is "very concerned" about the potential for systems to rapidly intensify, especially on their final approach to making landfall.

The other big driving factor is the likely emergence of La Niña this fall.

When water temperatures near the equator of the eastern Pacific Ocean are lower than the long-term historical averages for an extended period of time, La Niña is declared. Although this is a phenomenon in the Pacific, it has ramifications for weather patterns over the Atlantic Ocean. Specifically, La Niña can reduce the disruptive winds across the basin, known as wind shear. When wind shear is lower, it makes it easier for tropical systems to take shape and strengthen.

Every year, meteorologists use a list of 21 names to identify each tropical storm and hurricane, but with up to 25 storms predicted this season, forecasters could run out of names.

If the list is exhausted, forecasters will have to use a supplemental list of names for the first time ever.

In previous hyperactive years, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) used the Greek Alphabet to name storms. However, following the record-breaking 2020 season, which had 30 named storms, they changed the rules and created a backup list of storm names.

The supplemental list of names is in alphabetical order, with the first name being Adria.

Want next-level safety, ad-free? Unlock advanced, hyperlocal severe weather alerts when you subscribe to Premium+ on the AccuWeather app. AccuWeather Alerts™ are prompted by our expert meteorologists who monitor and analyze dangerous weather risks 24/7 to keep you and your family safer.