Climate experts warn 'time running out' as CO2 emissions yet to peak

Global carbon dioxide emissions reached another record high in 2024, with researchers saying there is ‘no sign’ the world has reached a peak.

Researchers at the Global Carbon Project say the figures show that rapid reductions in emissions are needed if the world is to have any chance of limiting the world’s temperature rise to 1.5C.

If temperatures rise above this level, it will lead to a further rise in extreme weather around the world, experts believe.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change of global experts says that if the world is to hit the goal of limiting climate change to 1.5C, emissions must peak by 2025 and reduce by 43% by 2030.

“The impacts of climate change are becoming increasingly dramatic, yet we still see no sign that burning of fossil fuels has peaked,” said Professor Pierre Friedlingstein, of Exeter’s Global Systems Institute, who led the study.

“Time is running out to meet the Paris Agreement goals – and world leaders meeting at COP29 must bring about rapid and deep cuts to fossil fuel emissions to give us a chance of staying well below 2°C warming above pre-industrial levels.”

What emissions are still rising?

The Global Carbon Project found that global CO2 emissions hit 37.4 billion tonnes last year, rising 0.8% from 2023.

Atmospheric carbon dioxide levels are set to reach 422.5 parts per million in 2024, 2.8 parts per million above 2023, and 52% above pre-industrial levels.

Carbon dioxide emissions from using oil, coal, and natural gas for energy are up 0.8% from 2023, and continue to rise.

Globally, emissions from fossil fuels in 2024 are projected to increase: coal (0.2%), oil (0.9%), gas (2.4%) - although the researchers say that the margin of error within the forecast means that coal could fall.

These fossil fuels contribute 41%, 32% and 21% of global fossil carbon dioxide emissions respectively.

International aviation and shipping (3% of the global total) are projected to increase by 7.8% in 2024, but remain below their 2019 pre-pandemic level by 3.5%.

Which countries are responsible?

Large countries such as China, the US and India are responsible for large amounts of CO2 emissions. Emissions are falling in the US and Europe, and rising only slowly in China.

China’s emissions – accounting for 32% of the global total – are projected to marginally increase, although the projected range includes a possible decrease in emissions.

US emissions (13% of the global total) are projected to decrease slightly once again after emissions in the country peaked in 2005. They are likely to continue declining even during a second Trump presidency, according to Vox.

India’s emissions (8% of the global total) are projected to increase significantly, while European Union emissions (7% of the global total) are projected to decrease.

Emissions in the rest of the world (38% of the global total) are projected to increase slightly, too.

When will global carbon emissions peak?

The International Energy Agency predicts a peak in demand for all fossil fuels before 2030, according to its World Energy Outlook 2024 report.

Other reports, including by think tank Climate Analytics, have suggested that a ‘peak’ in global carbon emissions could occur imminently.

In their report in November 2023, it found a 70% chance that emissions start falling in 2024 if current clean technology growth trends continue and some progress is made to cut non-CO2 emissions.

Dr Patrick McGuire, of the National Centre for Atmospheric Science and University of Reading, said: "Despite clear evidence of accelerating climate impacts, we’re still moving in the wrong direction.

“We have only about six years until we consistently exceed 1.5C of warming at current emission rates. While some regions show promising decreases in emissions, the overall global trend remains deeply concerning. We need immediate, coordinated action across all sectors to drastically cut emissions and expand carbon removal efforts.”