German Economy Needs 288,000 Migrants a Year, New Study Shows
(Bloomberg) -- The German economy will need hundreds of thousands of immigrants a year to counter the negative impact from its aging society, according to a new study that feeds into an increasingly heated debate on the matter.
Most Read from Bloomberg
New York City’s ‘Living Breakwaters’ Brace for Stormier Seas
In Kansas City, a First-Ever Stadium Designed for Women’s Sports Takes the Field
NYC's Underground Steam System May Be Key to a Greener Future
NYC Gets Historic Push for 80,000 Homes With $5 Billion Pledge
The report by Bertelsmann Stiftung published Tuesday puts the required annual influx at 288,000 workers until 2040 in a scenario in which women and older people that are already there start working more as well. If those assumptions don’t materialize, as many as 368,000 migrants may be needed to keep the labor force from shrinking substantially and crippling German growth.
That compares with average net migration of about 600,000 in the decade through 2023, which included spikes due to wars in Syria and Ukraine. The decade before that saw an average influx of about 136,000 a year, according to Bloomberg calculations based on numbers from statistics agency Destatis.
“Demographic change, which will pose major challenges for the German labor market in the coming years with the retirement of the baby boomers, also requires immigration,” said Susanne Schultz, migration expert at the Bertelsmann Stiftung. “Of course, priority must be given to developing the domestic labor force potential — both of natives and of those who have already immigrated — and increasing labor market participation. But this alone will not be enough to meet the future demand for labor until 2040.”
The report comes as Germany faces snap elections early next year, with the economy’s protracted stagnation and migration both key themes in political campaigns. Extremist parties on the right and left who’ve been calling to tight curbs on foreigners have been rising strongly in the polls after surges of refugees in recent years.
Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek
©2024 Bloomberg L.P.
