German Conservative Merz to Challenge Scholz for Chancellor
(Bloomberg) -- German Christian Democratic Union Chairman Friedrich Merz secured the conservative candidacy to challenge Olaf Scholz for the chancellorship, clearing a field of rivals just over a year before the next general election in Europe’s biggest economy.
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Merz, 68, sealed the nomination after Bavarian Premier Markus Soeder dropped his claim. By standing aside early, the leader of the CDU’s smaller sister party, the Christian Social Union, saves the alliance from the kind of prolonged spat that damaged their chances of victory at the last national vote in 2021.
“We know that we have a whole host of tasks still to complete,” Merz told reporters in Berlin Tuesday alongside Soeder, who conceded the CDU’s traditional right to name the candidate as the larger party. “We have achieved things, and we have managed that from the ranks of the opposition,” Merz added.
His power play settles an internal contest that threatened to divide Germany’s conservative camp, even as polls show the CDU-led bloc enjoying more support among voters than Scholz’s three-party coalition combined.
It also sets the stage for what is likely to be a bruising campaign, with the issue of immigration certain to dominate amid the rise of extremist parties on the right and left that want to curb migrant arrivals.
A lawyer and one-time supervisory board chairman for BlackRock Inc.’s German operations, Merz won the party chairmanship in 2022 on his third attempt after former Chancellor Angela Merkel, a bitter rival, ceded the leadership post.
Social Democrat Scholz, 66, considers Merz to be his favored opponent — and is convinced he can beat him given his relatively low approval ratings, according to people familiar with the chancellor’s thinking.
“It’s fine with me if Mr. Merz is the candidate,” Scholz told reporters earlier Tuesday during a trip to Kazakhstan.
The timing of the decision, which still needs the formal backing of the CDU and CSU leadership, came as something of a surprise. Merz had signaled that the candidacy question would be resolved after a regional election in the eastern state of Brandenburg on Sunday.
The leader of the CDU, Germany’s main conservative party, is almost always the first choice to run for the chancellorship. Only two CSU leaders have made the bid since World War II and both failed.
But Merz’s weak personal ratings have raised doubts about whether he can capture the top office. His bid to succeed Merkel as CDU leader was thwarted by Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer in 2019.
When she fumbled ahead of the 2021 election, party members sidelined him again, opting for Armin Laschet, state premier of North Rhine-Westphalia. Laschet’s loss to Scholz, blamed partly on Soeder initially refusing to stand aside, jolted a party that had held the chancellorship for 16 years.
Merz’s CDU has stepped up attacks on Scholz’s government over migration, with calls to significantly tighten rules.
The chancellor accused Merz of pursuing headlines rather than proposals during a fiery debate in parliament last week. The conservative leader has also vowed to stand by Germany’s debt restrictions, an issue that has divided Scholz’s coalition.
On foreign policy, Merz is a firm backer of European integration and NATO and has been a vocal supporter of aid for the government in Kyiv following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In coming weeks, he’s planning to hold talks with French President Emmanuel Macron and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk.
A conservative party that shifted to the political center under Merkel has bristled at some of Merz’s public pronouncements. Last year he drew outrage for referring to migrant school children as “little pashas.”
His absence from politics after 2002, when he was sidelined by Merkel, and his years at BlackRock have also been the subject of scrutiny.
Scholz’s camp is counting on Merz to show his erratic and impulsive side over the next 12 months, helping the Social Democrats to depict him as an unreliable and inexperienced candidate ill-suited to run the country, according to people familiar with party discussions.
Still, Merz’s perceived baggage doesn’t appear to be hurting the CDU/CSU at the polls. Support for the conservative alliance is at the highest level in more than three-and-a-half years, according to the latest Insa survey for Bild am Sonntag newspaper published at the weekend.
At 33%, Merz’s bloc has more support than the SPD, Greens and Free Democrats — Scholz’s coalition — combined, the poll showed. The far-right Alternative for Germany, which posted significant gains in two regional elections this month in eastern Germany, is second with 19%.
If Germans could vote directly for their chancellor, it would be a close contest. According to a separate Insa poll published Sunday, 25% would choose Merz and 21% Scholz. Almost half, or 48%, wouldn’t pick either.
While Germany’s next government is likely to led by either Merz or Scholz, the Greens will also field a candidate, though they’re well behind in the polls on around 11%.
Robert Habeck, the current economy minister and vice chancellor, is almost certain to be their choice after Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock ran last time.
Soeder was the last genuine challenger to Merz from the conservative camp after Hendrik Wuest, who runs Germany’s most populous state of North Rhine-Westphalia, ruled himself out on Monday. Polls suggest that both Soeder and Wuest would have a better chance of beating Scholz in a head—to-head contest than Scholz.
--With assistance from Jake Rudnitsky.
(Updates with details on foreign policy in 15th paragraph.)
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