Florida on alert for Tropical Storm Sara as late-season storm may track toward US
Tropical Storm Sara is crawling along near Central America and will have the potential to emerge in the Gulf of Mexico this week, where it could re-strengthen and threaten Florida with flooding rain, storm surge and damaging winds, AccuWeather meteorologists say.
Early Thursday afternoon, Tropical Depression 19 strengthened into Tropical Storm Sara, becoming the 18th named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. AccuWeather began calling it a tropical rainstorm earlier in the week to raise public awareness and planning for those in the path of the storm. It has maximum winds of 45 mph and is crawling westward at 4 mph just north of the Honduras coastline.
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Because the center of Sara developed very close to Central America, this prevented rapid intensification to a major hurricane. Sara may spend most of its time into this weekend within 50 miles of the coast or over land in Central America and Mexico.
With spending considerable time over Central America and southeastern Mexico, the main questions become: Will it survive over land? What will be left as it emerges in the Gulf of Mexico, and how quickly will it ramp up once in the Gulf?
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The slow-moving nature of Sara while over the land will unleash tremendous rainfall, flash flooding and mudslides, which could result in catastrophic loss of lives and property.
Sara will lose wind intensity and could lose its circulation. If it unwinds totally, there may be little left to regenerate while over the Gulf this week. If it maintains a center of circulation, the chance of strengthening increases. Even then, it will face some obstacles.
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The water in the Gulf of Mexico is not as warm as that of the Caribbean and is only marginally warm enough to support a tropical storm or hurricane.
Ahead of an approaching cold front, disruptive breezes, known as wind shear, will also increase.
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At the very least, some of Sara's tropical moisture will be lifted northeastward over the Gulf.
That extra moisture can be enough to lead to flooding downpours and perhaps severe thunderstorms in Florida toward the middle of this week. Some inland communities along the rivers were still experiencing flooding from Milton at the start of this week.
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The exact track when over the Gulf will depend on Sara's organization and ability to regain strength at midweek.
A storm with lower sustained winds is more likely to be pulled into the front and to the north--perhaps over the central Gulf coast.
A more organized tropical depression or storm is more likely to track more to the east and into the Florida Peninsula.
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Since Sara still has the potential to regain some wind intensity upon leaving Mexico, interests along the central and eastern Gulf coast, especially those along the Florida Gulf coast, should closely monitor its progress.
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