Fears of Christmas Covid explosion as two new variants emerge
As Covid cases rise across the country experts warn two new variants “co-circulating” could see numbers explode over Christmas as a new wave of the pandemic emerges.
“Generally what you have is an overlapping wave, where one is better than the other,” Stuart Turville, an Associate Professor at the University of NSW, told Yahoo News Australia.
“Here we might have a situation where we have two equally matched variants and it’s very difficult to differentiate between them. In terms of a race, they are kind of neck-and-neck. That’s quite a unique aspect.”
He warns a wave driven by both variants in the last two months of the year could have serious implications on the population. “XBB.1 and BQ.1.1 have an ability to be more slippery to the current existing antibodies that people would have,” Professor Turville explained.
“They don’t completely get around the antibody response. There still is binding, but there is significantly reduced binding when we look at various people. I think in Australia it will be a very interesting dynamic because we truly have both of them co circulating.”
Covid deaths jump by almost a third as new variants arrive
As two new variants emerge within Australia, Covid cases are continuing to surge around the country. On Monday, the ABC’s health reporter Dr Norman Swan revealed there had been an 11 per cent week-on-week increase in Covid cases and a 30 per cent increase in deaths.
“So we are on again,” he told ABC News. “Wastewater and PRC testing are suggesting that we are experiencing the variants that they are experiencing overseas.”
Professor Turville says he’s been seeing a rise in cases first-hand. “I can tell you anecdotally that the teams I work with at the diagnostic level are seeing increasing levels of cases and we see that when we go looking at isolating viruses because we work closely with those teams to get those samples,” he said.
“They’re collecting a lot more, and that's usually what we see at the start of a wave.”
A return to mask wearing and eating outdoors
While the experts keep a close eye on escalating cases, Professor Turville is already thinking about how to curb another Covid outbreak. “If a wave starts to get to a point where it does become large, compared to what's being observed in other countries, then we need to think about pragmatic things like mask wearing and having a conversation in terms of how to bring a wave like that down,” he said.
For Aussies planning their Christmas celebrations, he’s urging them to be vigilant and, if cases peak, eat outdoors where they can. “I think it's really simple things like if you don't feel well, go and get a RAT test,” Professor Turville said.
“If you are in dense environments, like on a train with a lot of people, wearing a mask is a pragmatic thing we can do to increase our vigilance.”
But the most important thing is to protect yourself against these new variants is to make sure your vaccines and booster are up to date.
“What we see is people that have had, say three doses of Pfizer and hadn't been boosted for a long time, we do see the drops of antibody binding go down to very, very low levels,” said Professor Turville. “But importantly, people that have had their fourth dose of vaccine, what we see is those antibody levels come up and they bind relatively well to these new emergent variants.”
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