England v Denmark: Punters and City analysts predict victory for Three Lions

·2-min read
England players celebrate a goal during their UEFA Euro 2020 quarter-final victory against Ukraine on Saturday
England players celebrate a goal during their UEFA Euro 2020 quarter-final victory against Ukraine on Saturday. Photo: AFP

England’s chances of beating Denmark later on Wednesday and qualifying for the final of the UEFA Euro 2020 stand at 71%, said betting exchange platform Smarkets.

This comes as Goldman Sachs (GS) predicts the Three Lions, managed by Gareth Southgate, will ultimately win the tournament.

Smarkets said there is a 57% chance England win in 90 minutes, and a 27% chance of a draw, which means extra time and penalties could be on the cards.

England’s Harry Kane is the favourite to score first on a 20% chance, followed by Raheem Sterling on 13%.

"After a stunning 4-0 win over Ukraine on Saturday, the Three Lions arguably face a much tougher test this evening against Denmark,” said Smarkets’ Sam O'Brien West.

“Despite this, bettors on the Smarkets exchange appear to have faith in England's ability to get the win and reach their first ever European Championship final," which will take place on Sunday.

She added that "Whatever the lineup, I'm expecting the Danes to put up a real fight and this is by no means an easy fixture.”

Italy’s win over Spain in the first semi-final saw them become the most likely Euro 2020 winners at 50%, Smarkets revealed, but England’s chances have also slightly improved from 38% to 41%.

Kane is given a 17% chance of winning the Golden Boot – an award given to the leading goalscorer – and Sterling is favourite to win Player of the Tournament on 22%.

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But Goldman Sachs’ Euro 2020 probability model predicts England will win the tournament, its first major win since 1966.

Goldman’s Christian Schnittker said that “with Belgium out of the competition now, our model sees England as the favourite to win the Euros”.

“Italy’s 2-1 win against Belgium was a shock to our model, which so far had seen Belgium as the most likely team to take home the trophy.”

Goldman’s model shows England has a 57.7% chance of reaching the final and a 31.9% chance of winning the tournament. 

Denmark are currently deemed the underdog with a 42.3% to reach the final and 21.1% to win.

Goldman used data from roughly 6,000 matches played since 1980 to come up with its probability model. It takes into consideration squad strength, recent performances and match locations.

It added that all predictions are “highly uncertain”.

Meanwhile the government has announced that pubs in England will be allowed to stay open longer on Sunday in case the final goes into extra time and penalties.

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