Election-Betting Site Polymarket Says Trump Whale Identified as French Trader

(Bloomberg) -- A trader who spent more than $45 million on Polymarket bets that Donald Trump will win the upcoming US presidential election has been identified as a French national, following an investigation by the cryptocurrency-based prediction markets platform.

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Polymarket, which does not permit US users, determined the person behind four large accounts also had “extensive trading experience and a financial services background,” a company spokesperson said in a statement on Thursday.

The accounts, the largest of which goes by the username Fredi9999, have collectively spent millions of dollars in markets that favor a Republican victory on Nov. 5. Online sleuths had previously expressed concern that the accounts were run by a single person, with the intention of skewing Trump’s odds to support his chances.

“Based on the investigation, we understand that this individual is taking a directional position based on personal views of the election,” said the spokesperson. “Further, our investigation to date has not identified any information to suggest that this user manipulated, or attempted to manipulate, the market. This user has agreed not to open further accounts without notice.”

Polymarket was conducting fresh checks to verify that users of its platform, particularly those making large wagers, are based outside of the US, Bloomberg News reported on Tuesday. The New York Times first reported confirmation of the trader’s nationality and background.

Betting on the outcome of the presidential election is New York-based Polymarket’s most popular offering, with almost $2.4 billion in trading volume to date on its main market for this year’s race. The implied probability of Trump winning ranked at 61.6% on Polymarket as of Thursday, compared to 59% on rival provider Kalshi and 57% on PredictIt.

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