Will Labor stumble at the final hurdle before the Federal election?
As a federal election draws ever closer, Labor looks assured of victory.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison has long been painted as untrustworthy and a liar, even from within his own ranks, making it a near-impossible task for the Coalition to win voters over for a fourth straight time.
However, Labor risks defeat if the party simply stands back and waits for the Coalition to sink itself, says former independent MP Tony Windsor.
Windsor spoke to Yahoo News Australia about what he believes Labor can do to seal a victory and the factors that could lead to another shock loss for Anthony Albanese and his party.
“I think a Liberal victory is probably gone. I can’t see Morrison being re-elected. I’ve got enough mates in the Liberal party to know they don’t like him,” Windsor said.
“His vision is no further than 'round the corner. He really hasn’t engaged with anything. There’s been no real reform in anything. And the things he’s done haven’t been done well. Defence has been buggered up, foreign affairs has been buggered up.”
Charisma
“Albanese’s not a bloke with a hell of a lot of charisma but neither’s Morrison. Whether that comes up against Albanese I don’t know. I hope they come to address the policy issues rather than just that.”
Mr Windsor said Labor needed to be more forthright with what they would do running the nation.
“Personally I think he’s got to push their policies,” Windsor says of Albanese and Labor. “They’ve got things in mind he should be telling people. He runs the risk of having such a small target, that that target may well react against him.”
“I know all the advisers will be saying 'just keep it small, you’re winning, you’re winning, the other guy’s going to lose so you don’t have to say too much'. I personally don’t agree with that.
“I think people want to know what you want to do. If you’re standing up to be prime minister you should be proud of what you want to do and get it out there.”
Yahoo News Australia has analysed the major issues that could lead to a Labor loss in the next election, similar to what occurred for the party in 2019 when it lost an election that most polls tipped they’d win.
Trust
The biggest strength Albanese has is his opposition’s weakness: trust. Many people do not trust Morrison and his ministers anymore. Various instances where the PM has shown his dishonesty have popped up in the years since he took the top job from Malcolm Turnbull, and while he claims to not remember them, many others do.
The accusation by French president Emmanuel Macron that Morrison lied about a submarine deal, electric vehicle policy backflip, and the claim that he knew nothing of the Brittany Higgins assault accusations are just a few of the incidents that paint Morrison in a dishonest light.
Deputy PM Barnaby Joyce was even caught out calling his boss a liar, while fellow senator Concetta Fierravanti-Wells threw a grenade at her own party and the prime minister in a speech to parliament, labelling Morrison “ruthless”.
Albanese has wisely kept very quiet during most of these scandals, allowing them to run without appearing to take political advantage as many opposing parties would, particularly in an election year.
The tactic appears to be working well for the Labor leader, with his silence making him appear above such behaviour and the natural alternative to a party whose leader has a bad smell following him.
So it appears Mr Albanese is relying on the distrust of Morrison and the Liberals to continue to play out while he appears to be above it all. As Mr Windsor says, Abanese's advisers will be telling him the last thing people will want to hear is how trustworthy he is compared to Morrison, as many do not trust politicians at all.
Economic management and cost of living
The Liberal party has long lauded its own ability to manage the economy while launching constant attacks at Labor for its mismanagement of taxpayer funds.
The recent federal budget injected some assistance for low and middle income earners in the form of tax cuts, while the temporary halving of the fuel excise will ease the pain all Australians have been feeling when they've filled up at the petrol bowser of late.
A one-off $250 "cost of living" payment included in the budget didn’t seem to go down too well, with many labelling it as having little to no impact long-term.
“Right now it’s about standard of living, and that’s clever politics as it moves you to the moment, not the past and not the future,” Windsor said.
“But governments need to be more long-term focused.”
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In response to the budget, Mr Albanese and his team have attacked the government for merely delaying action on key economic issues, such as wage growth and inflation, until after the election.
To many, the budget does appear short-sighted, avoiding action plans for long-term issues and instead aiming to capture votes for the imminent election.
Mr Albanese has a great opportunity in the coming weeks to identify how Labor will address these issues, with a costed plan attached to it, so that voters will have confidence that Labor is not all about easing of short-term issues, something that has plagued politics in recent years.
Climate change
Conformation by the government in the budget that funding to its key climate change agencies, the Clean Energy Finance Corporation (CEFC) and the Australian Renewable Energy (ARENA), will reduce by 35 per cent over the next four years is not a good look in an election year plagued by serious flooding that many attribute to climate change.
Labor’s emissions reduction target of 43 per cent of 2005 levels by 2030 is far ahead of the Coalition’s 26 to 28 per cent reduction.
Deputy PM Barnaby Joyce has repeatedly thrown shade on the credibility of climate change, labelling it in many instances a Green conspiracy, so many who believe the climate science have already turned away from the Coalition.
So how could Labor blow their apparent lead in climate change? The Greens.
Viewed by many to be in a silent coalition with Labor, the Greens are often there right alongside Labor when discussing climate change or any other environmental policy. Yet their constituency is limited mainly to inner city fringes that are not impacted by many of the issues they claim as important.
The Greens have long provided a passionate voice on various issues outside of the environment, leading many to roll their eyes when one of their members pops up in the media. Albanese would do well to gag the Greens as much as he can before the election so they aren’t likely to say something that will offend the vast majority of the electorate before the election.
With these key tactics in mind, Labor won't have to do much other than watch Mr Morrison and his colleagues sink in a sea of distrust. Albanese can then ride the resulting wave all the way to the Lodge.
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