Shareholders might have noticed that Aptinyx Inc. (NASDAQ:APTX) filed its annual result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 4.5% to US$2.10 in the past week. Revenues of US$3.7m came in 3.0% below estimates, but statutory losses were slightly better than expected, at US$1.71 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
After the latest results, the consensus from Aptinyx's six analysts is for revenues of US$3.40m in 2020, which would reflect a small 7.5% decline in sales compared to the last year of performance. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 33% to US$1.15. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$3.61m and losses of US$1.86 per share in 2020. While the revenue estimates fell, sentiment seems to have improved, with the analysts making a losses per share in particular.
The consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$10.25, implying that the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite adjustments to both revenue and earnings estimates. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Aptinyx analyst has a price target of US$13.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$7.00. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would also point out that the forecast 7.5% revenue decline is better than the historical trend, which saw revenues shrink -31% annually over the past three years
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates revenues are expected to perform worse than the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Yet - earnings are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at US$10.25, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Aptinyx analysts - going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 6 warning signs for Aptinyx (2 shouldn't be ignored) you should be aware of.
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