New York Democrats Aim to Use Harris’ Surge to Flip House Seats
(Bloomberg) -- Democrats only a month ago were so fearful they would suffer big defeats in Congress that they pressured a sitting president off their party’s ticket. Now, they are optimistic they can snare a majority in the House by flipping key seats in New York and California.
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The more upbeat view is inescapable at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, where it is manifesting as chants of “fired up and ready to go!” at breakfasts and gushing remarks from party leaders. Democrats are relishing their current position after spending much of the spring and summer dealing with a party divided by the war in Gaza and whether President Joe Biden should drop out.
That confidence is translating into big spending plans, as the House Democrats’ campaign arm said Monday it aims to pour $27 million into an advertising blitz, with nearly half of that going to New York and California races. Democrats see opportunities to flip GOP seats in other states, as well, including in Arizona and Pennsylvania districts.
“We’re only four seats short,” House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries said Monday, referring to the number of House seats he needs to gain on net to win a majority. “We’re inside the red zone, way inside the five-yard line. We can see the end zone, and together we will get there.”
Jeffries, who is from Brooklyn, says he believes Democrats can win five races — two on Long Island, one in the Northern New York City suburbs, one in the Hudson Valley and one in Syracuse — that would solidify the majority.
Public polling for House races is notoriously inconsistent and infrequent, meaning it’s not clear that Democrats’ standing has improved with Vice President Kamala Harris atop the ticket as much as party leaders’ newfound enthusiasm would suggest. And some seats currently held by Democrats in Washington, Maine, New Mexico and Colorado are at risk of flipping to the GOP.
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Vibe Shift
Still, it’s a notable change in tenor. For weeks after Biden’s disastrous June debate performance, Democrats grumbled privately, and increasingly in public, that Biden would be a drag on the ticket, ceding the House, Senate and White House to Donald Trump and his Republican allies.
“This is one happy, unified convention. It’s amazing. Everywhere you go, people have a smile on their face because we know that we have the right ticket,” Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said Monday at a breakfast for New York Democrats at the DNC, adding that he’s “proud” of Biden for doing the “the right thing.”
Biden earlier this month credited concerns about his impact on down-ballot races as a motivator for him to end his campaign.
“What happened was, a number of my Democratic colleagues in the House and Senate thought that I was going hurt them in the races,” Biden said in the interview with CBS.
Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi — one of the key figures who helped Biden comes to terms with dropping out of the race — said Monday she’s confident she can cut the number of California Republicans from 12 to “single digits.”
“No wasted time, no underutilized resources, and no regrets the day after the election that we could have done more,” Pelosi said at an event for California Democrats on the sidelines of the DNC on Monday.
Harris Tailwinds
Another prominent Democrat, Representative Steny Hoyer, said at the convention Monday that members of his party see Harris’ ascension to the top of the ticket as “a real help.”
“Members in tough districts, in battleground districts — They are really enthusiastic, and they think it’s going to help,” Hoyer said.
Republicans have also begun to sound the alarm that they could easily be overrun by Democrats in November. Representative Richard Hudson, who chairs the House Republican campaign arm, has warned his party that Democrats, buoyed by enthusiasm for Harris, are raising hundreds of millions of dollars that threaten GOP reelection bids.
House Speaker Mike Johnson in a fundraising email echoed those worries. “We’re not panicking – but we’re excruciatingly aware of what could go wrong if we don’t ACT NOW,” he said in the appeal to donors.
Republican House campaigns have a slight campaign cash edge over Democrats, collectively raising $704 million to the Democrats’ $698 million. But the GOP lags behind in money raised by the party’s campaign arms, which can be critical for targeting close races. Democrats have raised $211 million through the end of June, compared to $162 million for its GOP counterpart.
Other hints of enthusiasm, too, are giving Democrats fresh confidence. Samantha Crunkilton, a political consultant in Las Vegas, said she’s seen an influx of volunteers from out-of-state Californians looking to help win races in Nevada.
“Everyone wants the yard sign, which was something we missed in 2016,” said Crunkilton, a DNC delegate. “People say yard signs don’t vote. I think they show the temperature of an area and what we’re expecting to see.”
--With assistance from Amanda Albright, Miranda Davis, Bill Allison and Stephanie Lai.
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