Conviction Picks: Week 10 fantasy football takes our analysts believe in the most

Our analysts reveal the fantasy football takes they have the most conviction for heading into Week 10 to help you feel better about the lineup decisions ahead. For more sit-start advice, check out our rankings hub.

David Montgomery is a top-10 back upon his return

Montgomery is set to return this week. In Weeks 4 and 5 before his injury, Montgomery handled 72% of the snaps and 70% of the backfield carries. This led to 29 opportunities per game behind the Lions' top-5 offensive line.

Now, the recent success of Jahmyr Gibbs opens up some questions about Montgomery’s role upon his return. But Dan Campbell addressed this recently. He stated both backs will get their touches and have roles in the offense. He’s also stated in previous weeks that Montgomery is the workhorse on this team.

Montgomery’s role has been elite this season when healthy. He ranks third in red-zone usage and fourth in carries per game. Expect Gibbs' usage to increase some, but Montgomery should regain his early-down snaps and red-zone role. He’s a top-10 running back this week against the Chargers. — Sal Vetri

Jared Goff finishes as a top-3 QB

Detroit Lions QB Jared Goff continues to shock the NFL community with some stunning gameplay, having led the Lions to a 6-2 start while completing a career-high 68.3% of passes, ranked as PFF’s fourth-highest graded passer to date. That success has translated to some upside for fantasy, too, with Goff ranked as the QB11 in fantasy points per game this season, including three top-five weekly finishes over eight games.

The Lions are on the road in Week 10 (which has historically not been ideal for Goff’s fantasy production), but the good news is that the game will come against the Los Angeles Chargers, who have been one of the league’s best matchups for opposing quarterbacks. To date this season, the Chargers are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, allowing the second-most passing yards while tied for a league-high four rushing touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks. There have been just three quarterbacks all season that the Chargers haven’t given up 21+ fantasy points to (Tyson Bagent, Aidan O’Connell and Zach Wilson). All this is to say, it should be a great spot for a big-time producer like Goff to have another solid day. — Kate Magdziuk

Javonte Williams will hit ground running coming out of bye

Javonte Williams has looked suspiciously like the pre-injury version of himself in recent weeks, which you may have missed because no one should be going out of their way to watch Broncos football. Over his last three games, Williams has gained 3.13 yards after contact per attempt, forced a dozen missed tackles and broken off seven runs of 10 or more yards. He’s been as dangerous as ever, basically. Williams is coming off a game in which he played a season-high 63% of the snaps and handled 30 touches, firmly reestablishing himself as Denver’s featured runner. This week, he gets a vulnerable Buffalo run defense that’s allowed 4.9 YPC to opposing rushers. Expect triple-digit yardage and a top-10 positional finish from Javonte. — Andy Behrens

DeAndre Hopkins continues to thrive with rookie QB

The Titans naming Will Levis the team’s new starter is huge news for Hopkins, who has the fourth-lowest catchable target rate this season. He pulled down three touchdowns during Levis’ NFL debut and then saw 11 targets last week, when Hopkins had the third-most unrealized air yards (128) while being shadowed by breakout corner Joey Porter Jr. more than any other WR in the league.

Tennessee gets a premier pass-funnel Tampa Bay defense this week that’s absolutely shutting down the run but has been gashed for 9.2 YPA, a 9:1 TD:INT ratio and by far the most passing yards over the last month. The Bucs have allowed the second-most fantasy points to receivers this season and could be missing CB Jamel Dean (concussion), helping D-Hop finish as a top-three fantasy WR this week. — Dalton Del Don

Taysom Hill will finish among week's top TEs again

All the rules go out the window with Taysom Hill. You can't count snaps, or track routes. All you need to focus on is the fact that he gets goal-line work, and he has three different roles with the Saints — dynamic runner, occasional receiver and a sprinkle of quarterback work. I'm going to keep starting Hill aggressively and using him for props until there's a down week. Sure, he’s a tight end in name only, but we play the cards we’re dealt. He’ll be a top-three fantasy tight end at Minnesota. — Scott Pianowski

Michael Pittman is a top-10 wide receiver

I can’t express how much the Josh Downs injury bums me out, especially since I’ve seen little to no reporting on how long he’ll be out. Downs has been one of the best separators in the NFL this season. Not among rookies, I’m talking full-stop premiere separator league-wide level of performance. Assuming he misses Week 10, the targets should concentrate between the running backs and top receiver Michael Pittman.

New England has issues at the cornerback position as the J.C. Jackson reclamation project has not gone to plan. Per Fantasy Points Data, the Patriots also play single-high at the ninth-highest rate in the league so far this season (57%). Those single-coverage looks will benefit Pittman as will an additional boost to his already-high target totals. Start Pittman with confidence early Sunday morning. — Matt Harmon

Big bounce back coming for Geno Smith

Yes, I know it was rough last week for Geno Smith and his Seahawks compadres. No way to sugar coat it, but we’re looking ahead to a great matchup this week with the Commanders coming to the Pacific Northwest. While both of Smith’s 300-yard games have been on the road, he’s been solid at home. He threw for 296 yards and a score against the Panthers, and gutted out 254 yards and two touchdowns in a 24-20 victory over the fantastic Browns defense.

The Commanders are 27th with 264.9 passing yards allowed per game, and have given up 19 touchdown passes. That’s tied for 30th in the league. Already four quarterbacks have gone past 300 yards, and two others hit 279 and 282 yards, respectively, against the Commanders. After a beatdown like the one last week in Baltimore, teams respond. It helps they’re coming home. It’s going to start with Smith, who is expanding the role for Jaxon Smith-Njigba (18 targets the last three games) and has yet to give D.K. Metcalf or Tyler Lockett big games. Smith is going to blow past 300 passing yards and help his receivers for fantasy. — Jorge Martin