College football line movement: Alabama total will reach 80s

·5-min read

Week 5 of the college football season has the potential to be the best one yet. We have plenty of intriguing matchups on the slate that will further tell us what these teams really are. 

Since the lines were posted on Sunday, we've seen some significant line movement across the board. Which games have seen their odds change and what does it mean for Saturday?

You can't set a total high enough

If oddsmakers set the total for Ole Miss vs. Alabama at 100 points, I think I'd still strongly consider a play on the over. While they didn't get that crazy, BetMGM opened the total for this game at 76 points. Currently, the over-under sits at 79 points.

When these two teams played last year, Alabama won by a score of 63-48. Since then, Alabama's offense looks just as dangerous with Bryce Young leading the charge. Matt Corral has taken another step forward in Lane Kiffin's offense, and he currently sits as the favorite to win the Heisman trophy. 

TUSCALOOSA, ALABAMA - SEPTEMBER 25:  Bryce Young #9 of the Alabama Crimson Tide reacts to an offensive fumble recovered in the end zone by Cameron Latu #81 against the Southern Miss Golden Eagles during the first half at Bryant-Denny Stadium on September 25, 2021 in Tuscaloosa, Alabama.  After a review, the ruling was changed to a fumble recovery for a touchdown by Latu.  (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
Bryce Young of the Alabama Crimson Tide reacts to a touchdown against Southern Mississippi. (Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

This total currently sits at 79 points, and the betting public doesn't usually get involved until the weekend. Once the public starts betting this game, you can expect this total to reach the 80s. Even then, I dare you to take the under. Alabama is a 14.5-point favorite, but that hasn't moved all week. 

Wisconsin now a favorite against Michigan

After watching Wisconsin quarterback Graham Mertz try to lead an offensive attack on Saturday against Notre Dame, oddsmakers did the logical thing. They opened Wisconsin as a 1-point underdog at home against the Michigan Wolverines. 

However, it seems like the market disagreed. Wisconsin is now the favorite in this game, currently laying 1.5-points at Camp Randall Stadium.

Last season, Wisconsin went on the road and dominated Michigan, winning by a score of 49-11. However, Michigan is clearly a different team this year at 4-0. 

We've seen line movement favor Wisconsin twice already this season. The line was moving in their favor in Week 1 against Penn State and again last week against Notre Dame. Wisconsin lost both of those games straight up as favorites. 

Oregon State garners positive attention

Last week, Oregon State went on the road against USC as a double-digit underdog. It ended up winning the game by three scores, dominating the Trojans most of the night. 

This week, the Beavers opened as 2.5-point underdogs at home against Washington. That number is long gone and the Beavers currently find themselves as 2.5-point favorites instead.

Washington opened the season looking like a mess, losing to Montana at home and then getting blown out by Michigan. However, it seems to have righted the ship a little the past two weeks with a blowout win over Arkansas State and then an overtime win against California. 

I was a bit surprised to see Oregon State open as a home underdog, but I'm also surprised by how quickly the line totally flipped. Nevertheless, Oregon State will look to continue its momentum but no longer as an underdog. 

We are ... bigger favorites

Penn State currently sits ranked fourth in the country after big early season wins over Wisconsin and Auburn. The Nittany Lions have their sights set on a potential playoff appearance if they can take care of business the rest of the way. 

STATE COLLEGE, PA - SEPTEMBER 25: Head coach James Franklin of the Penn State Nittany Lions looks on during the first half of the game against the Villanova Wildcats at Beaver Stadium on September 25, 2021 in State College, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)
Head coach James Franklin of the Penn State Nittany Lions looks on during a game against Villanova. (Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)

Meanwhile, Indiana had a tremendous season in 2020 but that hasn't carried over to 2021. Indiana has already lost to Iowa and Cincinnati and then struggled with Western Kentucky last week. 

These two teams play in Happy Valley on Saturday night, and oddsmakers opened the Nittany Lions as 10.5-point favorites. The spread has ballooned all the way out to 13. The total has also moved from 51 to 53.5 points.

The Texas A&M fade continues

Has Zach Calzada turned the Texas A&M Aggies into fade material? After taking over for injured Haynes King, Calzada struggled with Colorado and then lost to Arkansas. This week, early line movement is going against the Aggies. 

The Aggies are ranked 18th in the country but almost all of that rating is based on preseason expectations. They've been far from impressive to open the season. For that reason, they're currently just 7-point favorites at home against Mississippi State after oddsmakers opened the Aggies as 9.5-point favorites. 

Mississippi State has been very hot and cold under Mike Leach. It has an impressive home win against NC State, but since then it's lost to Memphis and LSU. The LSU score looks a lot better than it actually was, as the Bulldogs trailed by 18 in the fourth quarter of that game. 

Other notable moves

Western Kentucky at Michigan State: The total in this game is up to 64 after opening at 59.5 points. Michigan State is now an 11-point favorite after opening as a 9.5-point favorite. 

Eastern Michigan at Northern Illinois: Eastern Michigan opened as a 1-point road favorite, but it is now a 2.5-point underdog. The total has come crashing down from 63.5 points to its current number of 60.

BYU at Utah State: BYU is now a 9-point favorite on Friday night after the line opened at 7.5. The total has been bet up from 58.5 points to its current number of 62.

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