We're through three weeks of the college football season and we're beginning to learn a bit about these teams. This week features a lot more conference play. Within the next few weeks, things will crystalize about some things we still have questions about.
One way to see which teams have been impressive or unimpressive is to take a look at how they're performing against the spread. By definition, teams that cover spreads are surpassing expectations while teams that are failing to cover spreads are underachieving. So through three weeks, let's take a look at which teams are perfect against the spread and which teams are looking for their first ATS victory.
There are 131 FBS schools across the country in 2022. However, just 18 teams are undefeated against the spread entering Week 4. Two of those teams, James Madison and TCU, have played just two games so far. That means only 16 teams are 3-0 against the spread.
USC is 3-0 straight up and they have the same record against the spread. They're covering the spread by an average of 13.2 points per game. They blew out Rice, winning by 52 as a 32.5-point favorite. They also covered against Stanford as a 9.5-point favorite (13 point win) and Fresno State as an 11.5-point favorite (28 point win). The offense has been tremendous and the defense has been forcing turnovers.
Next up: USC -6.5 @ Oregon State
Texas beat UTSA and UL-Monroe comfortably as a double digit favorite, but their most impressive performance was their game against Alabama. They lost by just one point as a 21-point underdog. They'll be without Quinn Ewers for a few more weeks, causing them to lean on Bijan Robinson who had 202 yards from scrimmage and three touchdowns last week. Overall, Texas is beating the spread by an average of 11-points per game.
Next up: Texas -6.5 @ Texas Tech
Tennessee went on the road and beat Pittsburgh in overtime by seven points, covering as a 5.5-point favorite. They also covered massive spreads against both Ball State and Akron. Hendon Hooker and the offense have looked great, but the quality of competition hasn't been that great. It's even hard to take much out of the Pittsburgh game, as Kedon Slovis left injured after the first half. With all of that being said, they're covering spreads and making bettors money.
Next up: Florida @ Tennessee -10.5
While a lot of talk after Saturday was about how bad Auburn looked, it's hard to not be impressed by Penn State after that game. They won by 29 as a 2.5-point road favorite. They also went to Purdue in Week 1 and covered the spread as a road favorite. The defense is very good and Sean Clifford certainly has the experience at quarterback. Penn State is beating the spread by an average of 11.8 points per game.
Next up: Central Michigan @ Penn State -27.5
Kansas might be the biggest surprise in college football this season. They are 3-0 with outright victories against West Virginia and Houston. They were two-score underdogs in both games. Overall, Kansas is beating the spread by an average of 23 points per game as Lance Leipold has made this program competitive much quicker than many anticipated.
Next up: Duke @ Kansas -7.5
Other undefeated teams
These are the rest of the teams currently undefeated against the spread:
Kentucky (beating spread by an average of 8.7 points)
Oregon State (13.8)
South Alabama (20.5)
East Carolina (7.8)
Arkansas State (14.7)
Southern Mississippi (8.3)
We've gone through the teams that have been good to bettors. Now which teams have been terrible to bettors?
Despite it being just his second season at Auburn, the seat is already red hot for Bryan Harsin. They failed to cover as massive favorites against Mercer and San Jose State. In their first real test, they were obliterated by Penn State as a short home underdog. Oddsmakers had the game under a field goal, but Penn State won by 29 points. Auburn is failing to cover the spread by an average of 15.3 points per game.
Next up: Missouri @ Auburn -7
Scott Frost lost his job due to Nebraska's poor start, and the first game under Mickey Joseph wasn't much better. Nebraska is just 1-3 despite the fact they've been favored by at least 12 points in three of their four games. They lost outright as a 12.5-point favorite against Northwestern. They failed to cover a 29-point spread as a favorite against North Dakota. They were a 23.5-point favorite against Georgia Southern, but again, lost outright. In the first game with an interim coach, they lost by 35 as a 10.5-point underdog to Oklahoma. On average, they're failing to cover games by 18.6 points.
Next up: Bye
Other winless teams against the spread
There are ten other teams who are yet to cover a spread this season:
Virginia (failing to cover by an average of 9.5 points per game)
Boston College (11.3)
Georgia Tech (12.7)
Fresno State (11)
Colorado State (18.7)
Utah State (20.3)
San Diego State (11.2)