Since ATP tennis is in a bit of a down week with the Madrid Open, an ATP Masters 1000 event on deck next week, and with the NFL draft work all done and shared, what else is left to wager on? Oh, right, there’s spring football. The USFL is now in Week 3, and truth be told, I was just waiting a couple of weeks to see what information could be gathered after some games were played.
Similar to college football, what I am looking for is strength vs. weakness. However, since there are only eight teams and two weeks of football played, I’ll mostly target strength.
Here’s what I like for Week 3:
New Orleans Breakers -3.5 vs Birmingham Stallions
If you follow me for college football then you’ll know that I love a good pass rush, and that’s exactly what the Breakers have. New Orleans leads the league with 10 sacks through two games with DE Davin Bellamy leading the charge. Now, if there were only one rusher making noise, I’d be less inclined to back the Breakers, but this crew is doing damage with six players inside the top 25 for generating sacks. That’s a force you don’t want to mess with.
Stallions QB J’Mar Smith has been sacked just once, but he’s also only started one game and is now facing a step up in defense. Birmingham's offensive line will really be tested this week.
Having a solid pass rush is a benefit, but the Breakers appear to have a great defense overall and have allowed just 10 points per game after limiting the league's No. 1 passer, Philadelphia Maulers QB Bryan Scott, to just 17 points.
On the flip side, the Stallions are ranked eighth out of eight teams in points allowed, second worst in yards per game allowed, and second worst in rushing yards allowed. The lack of rushing defense has me interested with New Orleans having a duo in Jordan Ellis and T.J. Logan that has a combined for 252 rushing yards through two games. Mobile quarterback Kyle Sloter also has a rushing score this season.
Smith is getting attention for not having lost a game he’s played since November 2019, but we’ll see how well that holds up on a team lacking defense against a team with the top defense in the league through two games.
The pick: Breakers -3.5