Analysts Are Updating Their BioNTech SE (NASDAQ:BNTX) Estimates After Its Full-Year Results
BioNTech SE (NASDAQ:BNTX) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 3.8% to US$52.92 in the week after its latest annual results. The statutory results were not great - while revenues of €109m were in line with expectations,BioNTech lost €0.85 a share in the process. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on BioNTech after the latest results.
See our latest analysis for BioNTech
After the latest results, the consensus from BioNTech's seven analysts is for revenues of €101.7m in 2020, which would reflect a measurable 6.3% decline in sales compared to the last year of performance. Losses are forecast to balloon 25% to €1.06 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €105.6m and losses of €0.83 per share in 2020. So it's pretty clear the analysts have mixed opinions on BioNTech after this update; revenues were downgraded and per-share losses expected to increase.
The average price target was broadly unchanged at €29.65, perhaps implicitly signalling that the weaker earnings outlook is not expected to have a long-term impact on the valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on BioNTech, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €42.79 and the most bearish at €18.97 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. One thing that stands out from these estimates is that shrinking revenues are expected to moderate from the historical decline of 15% per annum over the past year.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at BioNTech. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates revenues are expected to perform worse than the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on BioNTech. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple BioNTech analysts - going out to 2022, and you can see them free on our platform here.
And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for BioNTech (of which 1 shouldn't be ignored!) you should know about.
If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.
We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.
