America on knife-edge as 'most Brits hope for Kamala Harris not Donald Trump win' in US president election

America on knife-edge as 'most Brits hope for Kamala Harris not Donald Trump win' in US president election

President Clinton once said “the American people have spoken, we just don't know what they said yet."

On Tuesday, the American people will have their say again; and nobody is quite sure what they will say then either.

Most of the available polling data points to a close race, especially in the crucial swing states that will decide the election.

Here the gap between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is typically a point or two in either direction, well within the margin of error.

Analysts are pouring over early voter patterns, but the picture is murky here too. The comparability of today’s numbers to an election held during a pandemic remains to be seen.

Many of the so-called ‘fundamentals’ point to a second Trump term.

Two thirds of Americans tell Ipsos that America is on the wrong track and President Biden’s approval rating is low – often below 40%.

Historic analysis of elections around the world shows that candidates of the same party as an unpopular incumbent often lose – which is bad news for Harris.

Meanwhile, Trump leads Harris anywhere between 5 to 8 points on which candidate has the best policies or plan on the number one issue to US voters – the economy.

Our analysis shows the candidate leading on the number one issue for voters tends to win. So here again is another indicator working in Trump’s favour. One that could be crucial in a tight race.

And yet Trump is no ordinary candidate and this is no ordinary election.

It is extremely rare for a former president on the ballot and for many Americans, the idea of another Trump presidency is unacceptable.

Election aggregator 538 shows 52% of Americans hold an unfavourable opinion of him.

Harris also leads Trump 8-points on the second most important issue to voters ‘protecting American democracy’ and on the issue of abortion by 15-points.

Democrats will hope to use both issues to drive their voters to the polls.

Democrats are certainly more enthusiastic about voting for Harris than they were for President Biden before he dropped out over the summer (the fact a sitting president withdrew from the race a few months before polling day a reminder of how unusual this election is).

What of public opinion here? Britons are watching closely. In fact, our polling shows the public here care more about who wins the US election (49%) than who becomes the next leader of the Conservative Party (31%).

Britons have an overwhelming preference too, with 54% preferring a Harris victory and 21% backing Trump.

Not only is Trump deeply unpopular in the UK but the public think a Harris win would be much better for UK – US relations as well.

Of course, we don’t get a vote. So all eyes to Tuesday – and likely beyond – to see what the verdict of the American people will be.

Clearly the prospect of a second Trump presidency is live and real. But anyone telling you they know for certain is kidding you.

In such a tight race, the nature of the US electoral college system means a range of outcomes are possible.

From Trump or Harris sweeping all of the swing states, to it all coming down to one; just as it did when Clinton made his famous remarks twenty-four years ago.

Keiran Pedley is Director of Politics at Ipsos