Shareholders might have noticed that Albany International Corp. (NYSE:AIN) filed its third-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 9.1% to US$49.50 in the past week. Revenues were US$212m, approximately in line with whatthe analysts expected, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) crushed expectations, coming in at US$0.91, an impressive 56% ahead of estimates. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, Albany International's five analysts currently expect revenues in 2021 to be US$913.4m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be US$3.10, approximately in line with the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$914.3m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.03 in 2021. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.
The consensus price target was unchanged at US$62.80, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Albany International analyst has a price target of US$70.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$57.00. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Albany International is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. We would highlight that sales are expected to reverse, with the forecast 1.9% revenue decline a notable change from historical growth of 8.3% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 7.5% next year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Albany International is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Albany International following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply revenues will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$62.80, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Albany International analysts - going out to 2023, and you can see them free on our platform here.
That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Albany International , and understanding this should be part of your investment process.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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