Advertisement

Campaign Diary Days 12, 13 and 14

The end of the second week of the campaign also brings to an end my first week on Kevin Rudd's campaign trail. On Sunday night, I switch back to Tony Abbott's media pack. A fortnight down, there is a growing consensus that Rudd's chances of winning this election have all but disappeared.

Three weeks remain until polling day, but the Prime Minister needs a political miracle. In a cheesey video released by the Labor Party on Saturday (complete with motivational music), Rudd tells staff at his campaign headquarters that his current "battleplan" is the right strategy, and will result in an unlikely victory on September 7. The truth is, maintaining the status quo will not be enough. Labor is relying now not just on Tony Abbott stumbling, but on him committing an unforgivable sin.

Cracks are increasingly evident in the Prime Minister's campaign. Reports of communication problems within the Rudd camp were backed up on Saturday at his announcement in Adelaide of new funding for the car industry. During his media conference, word began to filter through that the PM had agreed to take part in the Sky News People's Forum next Wednesday, after rejecting the invitation a few days earlier. I asked Rudd about it, and he gave an answer that was unclear. Afterwards, I contacted Labor Headquarters, and had it confirmed that Rudd would take part. I then asked Rudd's senior adviser on the ground in Adelaide, who still couldn't confirm it.

The left hand didn't know what the right hand was doing. Rudd's slip-up about "Ford" workers got most of the attention in the news that night. It was an unfortunate mistake at an event with Holden workers. But was it just an innocent error, or was it a reflection of pressure he is under? I'll give him the benefit of the doubt.

The past three days have been an incredible ride. At 4am on Thursday we left Brisbane for Darwin. From there we flew to Kununurra in Western Australia's north around lunchtime. Next stop on the same day was Perth, where we landed just before midnight local time to end an almost-24-hour day. It was the day Rudd announced his plan to develop Northern Australia, and the first major signs of trouble began to appear.

The public polls were already running against him, but the announcement of an uncosted vision without consulting most of his colleagues reeked of the Kevin Rudd of old. The PM had been attacking Abbott over a lack of costings every day, but was opening himself up to exactly the same attack. A trio of gaffes should've had the Liberal Leader on the back foot, but it was the PM doing most of the defending.

The defending continued in Perth, which has been far from a welcoming place for Labor in recent years. As if to underline that point, a heckler gave Rudd a spray during a campaign stop to a city train station. The PM ignored it, continued smiling and pressed on. He is indefatigable and unwavering in his self-belief. During his first shopping mall walk of the campaign a little later, he was mobbed. There were few signs of the earlier animosity towards him.

That underlined another important point. Rudd's personal popularity is slipping, but it is still higher than Abbott's in most parts of the country. Rudd is putting all of that at risk by engaging in the negativity war on his opponent. It's fine (and expected) for his party to run the negative TV ads, and for his colleagues to talk about "cuts, cuts, and cuts" under the Coalition. But the PM needs to try to stay above it if he is to retain the one advantage he still has over Abbott.

The all-out assault on the Liberal Leader led by Rudd looks desperate. When Anna Bligh tried it in the last Queensland election, Labor was almost wiped out. The party won't do as badly federally, but at a crushing defeat is on the cards.