Is Our Record Wet Drying Up?

South Australia's had its wettest start to the year on record - but could our long, damp spell suddenly coming in an end?

The latest long range forecast by the Bureau of Meteorology shows a 65 percent chance of below average rain for the next 3 months, and up to an 80 percent chance of warmer than average conditions.

That's because the rain-bearing La Nina weather pattern is starting to degrade.

This La Nina event has been one of the strongest ever recorded - producing widespread rain across the eastern seaboard, and major flooding in Queensland, parts of New South Wales and Victoria.

However, it's had no impact in Western Australia; the south-west is still in the grip of drought and experiencing ridiculously hot conditions for this time of year.

LaNina's also been responsible for producing higher than average rainfall here in South Australia at the end of last year, and the beginning of this year.

But, there are fears its opposite - El Nino could develop in spring.

Unlike La Nina, El Nino is often related to low rainfall and drought - something everyone who lives here in SA has witnessed in recent years.

If an El Nino does develop, it could mean a dry, hot summer and that certainly has repercussions for the bushfire season - especially since it's been so wet recently and vegetation is flourishing.

But whether an El Nino forms or not (and the Bureau is certainly a long way from saying with any certainty that it will) the short term outlook is that this April will be drier than average, and the long range forecast is that it's going to stay that way.

So, enjoy whatever rain winter will bring, plant those natives, and prepare for the possibility of a long, hot summer!