New figures have blown 2005's 'City of cities' report out of the water, with predictions the population of Australia's biggest metropolis will balloon forty percent to six million over the next thirty years.
The Minister for Planning, Infrastructure and Lands Tony Kelly says Sydney will be a different city.
"That will necessitate 770,000 extra homes or dwelling units, and it necessitates 740,000 new jobs. So it will be a different city," Mr Kelly said.More stories from Today Tonight
"'Sydney towards 2036' is the new blueprint of the NSW government, it identifies a number of strategic city centres."
"Sydney, Parramatta, Penrith, Liverpool, they're the major ones. There's about seventeen cities altogether but they'll be the major hubs in the future," Mr Kelly added.
In 2036, the population of Sydney city will rise 60 percent to 265,000. The West Central, where Parramatta sits, will rise 32 percent to 897,000. The North West, home to Penrith, will blow out 52 percent to over 1,000,000. Liverpool's population will double.
"The government's policy is that seventy percent of those new dwelling units will be in existing urban areas and thirty percent will be in Greenfield sites. We've got to look at making sure that we have more supply than there is demand and that will make sure that prices are still affordable," Mr Kelly said.But according to John Edwards from property analyst Residex Sydneysiders are at grave risk of being outpriced from the market forever.
"I don't think that we're going to be where people would think that were going to be. I think that the result is more likely that we will have high levels of density, we will have moderate rates of capital growth, but very high rental yields. And the reason is that we are bidding houses to inaffordability," John said.
"A hundred years ago it was more normal to rent than it was to own and that's why Sir Robert Menzies introduced The Great Australian Dream. Generally over the next thirty years I think that Sydney will become more of a renters home market than an owners home market. And yes house prices are going to grow very dramatically."
So just how expensive are we talking? According to Residex the $344,500 median house price in Penrith is expected to rise to around $1.3 million.
The $395,000 median house price in Fairfield is expected to rise to $1.47 million, with its rent increasing to $1,529.67. And that's the cheap end of the market.
A house in Brookvale will leap from $941,500 to $4,460,196, with its rent climbing to $2,058.45. A house in Randwick is predicted to surge from $1.4million to $6.8 million, with a rent of $1,562.44.
And what about units?
"Well, unfortunately they're likely to be over $1 million, too. If you look at somewhere like Chatswood, we're probably looking at something like $1.7 million," Mr Edwards said.
"Those harbourside properties, I won't be surprised when we get to there, to see some of those properties sell for a hundred million dollars," John added.
Aaron Gadial from Urban Taskforce says low housing construction levels are contributing to the rising price of homes.
"Housing affordability is skyrocketing out of control and that's because not enough homes are being built. We've had record low levels of housing construction for four years in a row in New South Wales, it's simply unsustainable," Mr Gadial said."We've got to have compact, pedestrian-friendly living in the urban centres and the major corridors of Sydney. We've got to get land release going again, we've had virtually no land release, no houses with backyards, being built on the edges of Sydney - at the moment NSW is producing less new homes per head of population than any other state or territory."
But there is hope on the horizon in the form of Oran Park town located one hour from Sydney's CBD. It's one part LA, one part grand prix.
Oran Park Town is Sydney's biggest residential development for the last ten years. The total precinct is about 450 hectares with a total of 15,000 homes - 45,000 people will be moving into the estate over the next twenty years.
Melbourne property prices jumped $70,000 last year, with the median house price now a record $540,500. Fast forward 30 years and prices will have transformed.
Economist and forecaster Brian Haratsis of Macroplan Australia has crunched the numbers and says both population and house prices are set to explode.
"If the forecasts are correct then Melbourne will increase in population from 4 million to 6.8 million between now and 2040 so we're talking about, you know, nearly 3 million people. So for those of us watching 10 or 15 years ago, that's doubling the size of Melbourne from 15 years ago," Mr Haratsis said.
Unlike the last 20 years, growth will slow in the south-east, but house prices won't - you can expect to pay $2.2 million there in 2040 .
In the leafy eastern suburbs, growth will stagnate with the median property price set to reach almost 2 million dollars by 2040.
"Most of the growth will be focused in the north and the west and so we see tremendous population growth. For example, population growth of around $750,000 people in the west, we're talking $850,00 in the north," Mr Haratsis said.
"In the north of Melbourne we see some quite substantial increases, around about a four times multiplier."
"Perhaps the biggest issue in a place like Melbourne is the west, where if you looked at median house prices today, we're looking at nearly a five times multiplier in terms of what that could be worth in 2040."
Its hard to believe in 30 years time a homebuyer will be paying $1.8 million for a house out west. Right now around Melton there are bargains galore. A three bedroom, two bathroom can be bought for around $255,000.
The big property winners already live in inner Melbourne.
"Melbourne becomes what I call a 'caramello city' very rich in the middle and perhaps a bit poorer on the fringes. but central Melbourne will become quite a wealthy place," Mr Haratsis said.
"Years ago this Armadale terrace was worth just $67,000, then in 1996 it sold for $180,000, and it's now worth $850,000 and experts predict if this current market trend continues by the year 2030 expect to pay around $4 million."
Sociologist Dr Bob Birrell blames a lack of new housing for an increase in property prices.
"By 2026 we're going to need an extra 600,000 net growth in houses or units - we're way short of that number which is one of the reasons why we're seeing this rapid escalation in housing and unit and rental pricing at present."
"We will be wealthier in the sense of real income, but our lifestyle, our lifestyles will have to change. It will be much more of a European lifestyle rather than one that Australians like to think is their birthright - that is access to an attached house and garden. That's what will go and we will face considerably more congestion and considerably more competition for access to amenities, so access to prize places like beaches and surf resorts is going to diminish as people compete to get close to them."
And expect long term leasing to become the norm. With rents running at 3.5 to 4 per cent of a property's price and rising to at least $1000 per week, with apartment towers already dotting our suburban landscape, this will become part of the new Australian dream.
Brisbane is Australia's fastest growing city with 100,000 moving to the capital every year. Experts predict it will eventually rival Melbourne in size.
Brian Haratsis says the next 30 years with be Brisbane's most challenging.
"I don't expect the housing market in 2040 to look like today's housing market," Mr Haratsis said.
Brian says Brisbane will need an efficient network of busways, inner-city rail and maybe even a return to trams.
"The infrastructure that's currently been put in place will need to be doubled again."
Mark McCrindle is demographer - he believes all of Queensland is set for a population growth spurt.
"To accommodate those 2100 people every week you almost need another 800 to 1000 homes to be built every week to accommodate just that growth that we currently have."
By 2040 the Gold Coast will hit one million people - the first non-capital in Australia to do so. The Sunshine Coast will have 400,000 people, Toowoomba 200,000, Townsville 275,000 and Cairns 250,000.
Certain Brisbane suburbs on bus or rail lines are also expected to boom.
In the north suburbs like Chermside and Aspley. In the east Carindale and Wynnum. In the south Mt Gravatt and Logan. In the west Toowong and Mitchelton.
In Aspley by 2040 your house will be worth $1.23 million, in Coorparoo $2.11 million, in Ipswich $1.16 milliom, in Logan central $797,000, in Mt Gravatt $1.45 million and in Taringa $1.68 million.Rents will also be more, but not astronomical.
In Aspley you'll be paying $1200 per week, Coorparoo $1300, Logan Central $1200 and slightly more in Mt Gravatt.
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