Fremantle are in the box seat to create history and claim a grand final berth, but dual premiership captain Tom Harley warns it is foolish to write off Sydney.
The Dockers are raging favourites to beat the Swans in tonight's preliminary final at Patersons Stadium after earning a week's break with a 15-point win over Geelong at Simonds Stadium a fortnight ago.
Fremantle have firmed to $1.29 since betting opened earlier this week.
The Swans have drifted to $3.65.
Harley, who captained Geelong to premierships in 2007 and 2009, said although it was hard to go past the Dockers tonight, experience had taught him never to discount the Swans.
Sydney have played in 15 of the past 18 finals series, winning the flag in 2005 and again last year to become the second-most successful side of the past decade, behind the Cats.
Harley said Sydney's finals experience meant a Fremantle victory would be no walk in the park.
"I think Fremantle will win, but just, in a game that's closer than a lot of people think," he said.
"Hunger is massive but on preliminary final weekend both sides will be as hungry as each other.
"The Swans have been there and they are as determined and respected and ruthless a football club as there is in the competition. And they're competitive.
"They played in the grand final last year, they know what's required and they've certainly got it."
The Dockers have named a side which is as close to their best 22 as it has been all year, with key defender Luke McPharlin and All-Australian Michael Johnson playing alongside each other for the first time since round 15.
Aaron Sandilands and Matthew Pavlich also are hitting form after injury-interrupted seasons.
By earning a home preliminary final and easing their injured veterans back instead of rushing them, Harley said all signs pointed to a Dockers victory tonight.
"Two of the major factors, I guess, are the home-ground advantage, not so much the dimensions of the field because the Swans play there exception- ally well, but because it's going to be an extremely hostile environment," he said.
"Fremantle have made a real knack of playing extremely well in front of their fans.
"Also with the health of their list, to be perfectly honest I think Fremantle have timed their run to perfection.
"Winning premierships is as much about luck and good management with the health of your list. They're probably the two factors that will play as much as anything in Fremantle's favour."