Time runs out for PM to overcome stumbles

She probably would not appreciate the comparison but yesterday's security scare for Julia Gillard was in some ways symbolic of her time in office.

There was the Prime Minister having to run the gauntlet of hostile opinion and stumbling, with Tony Abbott chasing hard on her heels.

The key difference that spoils the metaphor is that yesterday, Ms Gillard was caught up in events that were hardly of her own making, with the Aboriginal protesters directing their displeasure at the Opposition Leader.

The same can not be said of most of the missteps that have dogged Ms Gillard since she scraped home in the 2010 election.

And unlike Cinderella, who lost her shoe just as the Prime Minister did in the Australia Day melee, there is unlikely to be any happily ever after for Ms Gillard.

Ms Gillard's grip on power has never been robust but for all the talk this week of no-confidence motions when Parliament resumes next month, simple maths and raw politics means Mr Abbott today is no closer to The Lodge than he was on August 21, 2010.

While the deal between independent Andrew Wilkie and Labor has been junked after Ms Gillard watered down poker machine reforms, Mr Wilkie hasn't gone totally rogue.

And he was never bound to support every bit of government legislation anyway - for instance he promised to vote against the Malaysian refugee swap - and says he will treat all Budget measures on their merits.

As for no-confidence motions, he won't back "politically opportunistic" ones and would only support them in the event of "serious misconduct". He has signalled though he would consider with an open mind any motion the coalition put up, saying he wanted to see the wording and hear the debate before making a decision.

Even if Mr Wilkie voted with the coalition, Mr Abbott would still fall tantalisingly short of power. Independents Rob Oakeshott and Tony Windsor and Greens MP Adam Bandt have shown no sign of abandoning the Government.

Mr Oakeshott and Mr Windsor know that a switch to Mr Abbott would reduce their clout and prompt an election sooner rather than later. For the Greens, despite the tiff Bob Brown is having with Ms Gillard over Tasmanian forests, making Mr Abbott prime minister would be high treason for the party's left-wing base.

Of course, there are several wildcards. House Speaker Peter Slipper could do a double-double cross and give up his plum gig to support the coalition, while a cloud still hangs over NSW Labor MP Craig Thomson until investigations into claims he misused his union credit card are resolved.

An adverse finding that forced him out of Parliament would be game over for Labor.

Leadership changes in either party could give the crossbenchers an excuse to switch their support.

And then there are those out-of-the-blue risks for Labor - the sudden death of a marginal seat holder, or someone quitting the party in a fit of pique.

While Labor strategists are war-gaming for all sorts of scenarios, let's assume the Government can survive until the next election, due in September or October next year. That would mean Labor would have spent just shy of six years in power.

It may surprise some that this would be the third longest tenure for Labor in office, behind the Hawke-Keating and Curtin-Chifley years.

However, time is running out. Next month, Labor enters what appears to be its final 18 months in office - the last quarter if you like - unless it can pull off a miracle.

So how does Ms Gillard establish an "Abbott-proof fence" around her achievements in the time left?

These are the signature reforms - John Howard's GST, Paul Keating's compulsory superannuation, Bob Hawke's Medicare, Ben Chifley's Snowy Hydro Scheme - that can survive an electoral defeat and ultimately be embraced by political enemies.

Even though his prime ministership was snuffed out before he (or anyone else) expected, Kevin Rudd can point to the apology to the Stolen Generation and rollout of paid parental leave as his legacy.

There are some building blocks in place.

Though the carbon tax will be forever tainted by its genesis, if the impact on prices is as little as the Government claims, Labor may just be lucky enough to neutralise it as an issue.

Given that so much of Mr Abbott's political persona is wrapped up in opposing the carbon tax, neutralising it would be as good as a win for Labor.

The complexity of the carbon price legislation and Labor and the Greens' willingness to defend it in opposition also makes it a hard omelette for Mr Abbott to unscramble.

The mining tax was also created out of a flawed process but the public hostility to the tax has eased (except if you are a junior miner). BHP Billiton's $22 billion record profit did more than any taxpayer-funded advertising to convince people that maybe the miners could cough up a bit more.

Again Mr Abbott has pledged to get rid of the mining tax but as new WA Labor leader Mark McGowan pointed out last week, that would leave him with an $11 billion hole needing to be filled if people are to keep their associated superannuation increase and business their tax cuts.

No coalition government will rip up the National Broadband Network but the challenge for the Government is to ensure enough of it is built this term so the public can see tangible benefits.

If a critical mass of homes has been completed, those that are missing out would pressure the Liberals to complete the job.

The National Disability Insurance Scheme has bipartisan support but the Government needs the bureaucracy to get cracking on its design so benefits can begin to flow to people before the election if it wants to claim it as a Labor reform.

There is one achievement that can not be taken away from Ms Gillard - she will always be in the history books as the country's first female prime minister.

The challenge with her time left is to be seen as a competent one.