Six weeks ago, when the Australian dollar was trading at 90.7 US cents, the Reserve Bank of Australia's board thought a lower exchange rate would be needed to get the economy back on track.
The currency is currently buying about 90.3 US cents, barely changed from its value at the time the central bank's board met on December 3.
In the minutes of that meeting the RBA said the exchange rate "remained uncomfortably high and a lower level would likely be needed to achieve balanced growth in the economy".
Since then, the economy has shown few signs of doing what the RBA rather hopefully refers to as "rebalancing".
It's a narrative that portrays the economy as if it were one of those children's toys - called a wobbly man, among other names - that automatically rights itself no matter how hard, and how frequently, it's knocked down.
In this case, the wobbly man is being helped by low interest rates, working to boost those parts of the economy sensitive to them.
In a report this week global funds manager AllianceBernstein said it was "unconvinced" by this narrative.
It said the economy had "one cylinder firing", with signs of growth being confined largely to the housing market.
And a key factor crimping growth - the other being restraint in government spending - is the high exchange rate.
That's why the RBA explicitly left the way open for lower interest rates in the minutes of each of its meetings last year, including the May and August meetings which both ended with a cut.
But whether we'll see another cut in the cash rate depends on the exchange rate.
And the exchange rate is notoriously difficult to forecast.
Both the RBA and Treasury acknowledge this in their regular forecasts for the economy, which are built on an assumption that the exchange rate will stay about what it's been recently.
It's presented as a "technical assumption" but its likely to be as good as any actual forecast.
Whether the Aussie is higher or lower in six months' time may just as well be forecast by a coin toss.
And, given the important of the exchange rate to the economic outlook, that means whether the RBA will cut the cash rate again is about as easy to pick as a coin toss.
But it's a safe bet that the RBA won't be assuming the Australian dollar will do the right thing and head down to 80 cents or lower, helping the wobbly man to regain his balance.
So, when the RBA's board meets again in three weeks, it will very probably repeat the mantra that, while there is no intention to cut the cash rate immediately, there is no reason to rule out a cut further down the track.
And if anyone needs confirmation that the economy really is firing on one cylinder, coming from an organisation that watches it very carefully, that will be it.