The Reserve Bank of Australia has signalled interest rates will stay steady for a while, but the state of the labour market suggests more cuts can't be ruled out.
There were two key features of the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision on Tuesday.
One was the conspicuous abandonment of it's "easing bias", the explicit acknowledgement that cutting interest rates further had not been ruled out.
The other was the equally conspicuous absence of any comment suggesting the central bank wanted the Australian dollar to fall further.
Monetary policy is "appropriately configured", the RBA said.
"On present indications, the most prudent course is likely to be a period of stability in interest rates."
In other words, it's done enough to boost economic growth and now it plans to sit back and wait for the economy to respond.
But whether it has done enough depends on your perspective.
Looking from the queue at your local Centrelink office, it might seem unlikely.
The economy's growth rate has recently been too slow to generate enough jobs to stop unemployment from rising, as it has for most of the past two years.
And the RBA is not predicting anything different for the time being.
"Looking ahead, the Bank expects growth to remain below trend for a time yet and unemployment to rise further before it peaks," the RBA said on Tuesday.
And the unemployment rate will not stop rising the moment the economy gets back up to its "trend" pace.
The delay will probably be as much as six months, perhaps even 12.
The lag between economic growth and employment growth varies, but it's more than a month or two.
If the RBA's expectation of further rises in unemployment proves correct - and there's no good reason to suppose otherwise - then the jobless rate is likely to be higher at the end of this year than it is now.
And one thing the past two decades have shown is that it's highly unlikely that the cash rate and the unemployment rate will both end the same year higher.
If the unemployment rate rises over a year then the cash rate will very likely end the year lower.
In this regard, 2013 was typical.
The jobless rate rose to 5.8 per cent at the end of 2013 from 5.4 per cent at the end of 2012, while the cash rate fell to 2.5 per cent from 3.0 per cent.
The RBA may well decide not to cut the cash rate further in 2014 as the unemployment rate rises.
By the tone of its announcement on Tuesday, it would prefer to tough it it out (if resolutely sticking to your policy stance as other people lose their jobs can be described that way).
But unless the economy picks up pace both significantly and quickly, and the labour market responds unusually quickly as well, then the odds will still favour more rate cuts this year.