Treasury Wine Estates says consumer demand for luxury products and wine in China is slowing.
The owner of the Penfolds and Wolf Blass brands also says the current financial year will be challenging as it continues to sort out an excess of stock held by distributors in its key United States market.
Treasury Wine's decision to dispose of that excess wine cost it $153.4 million in the 2012/13 financial year, and led to the exit of chief executive David Dearie.
Interim chief executive Warwick Every-Burns told the company's annual general meeting on Wednesday that earnings in 2013/14 would be strongly influenced by the success of ongoing efforts to reduce excess stock in the US.
Other factors, including the volatility of the Australian dollar, would also impact earnings.
"In addition, and in keeping with recent announcements by other alcoholic beverage and luxury goods businesses, we are observing signs that consumer pull through in China is softening as a result of the recent leadership change and well documented government austerity measures," he said.
The company still expects its pre-tax earnings in 2013/14 to be between $230 million and $250 million, he said, up from $216 million in 2012/13.
But earnings in the first half of the 2013/14 financial year are expected to be lower than in the prior year due to lower US shipments and increased brand investment in Asia, Mr Every-Burns said.
Chairman Paul Rayner said it could take some time to find a permanent replacement for Mr Dearie.
He also said Treasury Wine had made "some bad calls" in the US, mainly in the area of lower-priced wines.
But Mr Rayner said the company would stay in the US market, and there was no reason why its luxury and "masstige" brands - mass produced prestige labels - should not succeed there.Treasury Wine shares dropped 11 cents, or 2.3 per cent, to $4.62.