MacTiernan set for easy win
Alannah MacTiernan is on track to easily win the Federal seat of Perth but the Labor Party faces a tough battle wresting the seat of Swan from the Liberal Party, according to internal ALP polling.
Polling conducted by the Labor Party's preferred pollster UMR shows Ms MacTiernan has a 62 per cent to 38 per cent lead on a two- party preferred basis over Liberal candidate Darryl Moore.
At the last election, Stephen Smith won Perth with 55.9 per cent of the two-party preferred vote.
ALP sources believe the "Alannah factor" is worth at least three points. In the 2010 election, the former State minister managed a 2.2 per cent swing to the ALP when she took on Liberal Don Randall in the seat of Canning.
This compared with a 3.2 per cent swing away from the ALP in the State. In Swan, sitting Liberal MP Steve Irons is ahead 53-47 on a two-party preferred basis, according to the Labor polling, while in Fremantle sitting Labor MP Melissa Parke is understood to be polling at the levels she achieved in the 2010 election, when she won 59-41 on a two-party preferred basis. The UMR polling was done 10 days ago and the sample sizes for each seat were about 350 respondents.
Given the Liberals' polling likely reflects the ALP polling, they will shift more resources from Perth into protecting their most marginal seat, Hasluck, which was won by Ken Wyatt in 2010 by just 948 votes.
ALP polling in Hasluck dated July 11 found the seat was headed for another lineball decision, with the ALP and the Liberals 50-50 on a two-party preferred basis.
This was a marked change from when Julia Gillard was prime minister. In May, UMR had the Liberals ahead 61-39.
The ALP holds just three of the 15 Federal seats in WA and if the Government is to retain power, it will need some gains in the State to offset expected losses in NSW, Victoria and Tasmania.
Prime Minister Kevin Rudd is being encouraged by his advisers to use the coming weekend to call the election for September 7.
September 21 is considered the only other viable alternative.
