Since this is my last entry for 2007, I'll summarise the outlook for the next month or so as best I can. In doing so, I'll also touch on the topic of long-range forecasting. These two issues have cropped-up independently in your comments but are closely related.

The former is the most commonly asked question and one many meteorologists are unwilling to answer. What is the weather going to be like next month? The answer is circumscribed largely by technology.

You'd think that advancements would have made it easier to predict the weather. But current modelling systems are fairly limited when it comes to long-range forecasting making it a game fraught with inaccuracy.

In fact little has changed since the late 1960s. That's when scientists at the Bureau of Meteorology developed a greater understanding of the relationship between the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and El Nino (EN).

The ENSO phenomenon formed the scientific foundation of seasonal prediction in Australia. Simple linear relationships between the Southern Oscillation Index and rainfall led to further improvements.

But even now the Bureau provides only four seasonal outlooks a year - each a probability forecast of rain and temperatures being simply above or below average for the next three months.

Current research into oceanography and meteorology may see improvements in the not too distant future. In fact it was reported in The Daily Telegraph today that the Bureau and CSIRO will be combining their climate research efforts in a new centre, which will have staff based across the nation. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research will study ocean prediction, seasonal climate prediction, air quality, severe weather, and water management.

But technology aside, the skill of seasonal prediction is inherently limited by the chaotic nature of climate. And Australia has one of the most variable in the world.

Dorothea Mackellar described our land as one 'of droughts and flooding rains' almost a century ago. And while much has changed, the unpredictable nature of our climate hasn't.

You need only look at how readily even the short-term outlook can change. As Sydneysiders would have noticed in the recent spate of wet weather, rainfall can be extremely hit and miss.

Your neighbour may pick up heavy falls, while you only receive a few millimetres. It just depends on where the areas of moisture build. For example, if the showers are generated by a vigorous onshore airflow pushing up from the south, they may not reach western suburbs.

The same goes for storms (of which we've had a fare few lately). If they fire up across the ranges and drift northeast, suburbs north of the bridge might cop a battering while the city remains shower-free.

Of course there are other techniques for long range forecasting aside from those used by the Bureau. You may remember New Zealand forecaster Ken Ring. He featured in several news stories this year, providing detailed long-term weather outlooks for specific regions.

Dubbed the moon-man, Ken uses lunar cycles to predict the weather days, years, even decades in advance. It's a contentious method, but his Predict Weather Almanac is a best-seller especially among farmers.

You can learn more at www.predictweather.com. Following are his predictions for Christmas, New Year, and January (taken from his Australian Weather Almanac 2008). Allow a 24-hour error and whatever the weather, have a great Christmas.

Adelaide
25-26 December 07: Partly cloudy and cool, becoming fine on the 26th.
27-31 December 07: Sunny and warm.

January 08: Drier month with rain expected only in the last week.

Brisbane
25-26 December 07: Cloudy and windy with heavy rain possible on the 26th.
27-31 December 07: Dry expect for showers on the 29th.
January 08: Average rain with falls likely in the first and last weeks.

Hobart
25-26 December 07: Scattered showers, clearing on the 26th but staying windy.
27-31 December 07: Mostly dry and sunny.

January 08: Average rain, most likely around the 6th, 14th, and 27th.

Melbourne
25-26 December 07: Partly cloudy with scattered showers.
27-31 December 07: Clearing, extra warm on the 28th/29th.

January 08: Fine and sunny with only 3 rain days expected around the 6th and 27th.

Sydney
25-26 December 07: Sunshine mixed with odd showers, quite windy in places.
27-31 December 07: Fine and sunny, extra warm on 31st/1st, with the odd shower.

January 08: Fine and sunny for the first few weeks. Unsettled 16-26th, clearing on the 27th and fine for rest of month.

Perth
25-26 December 07: Overcast and hot with strong winds.
27-31 December 07: Partly cloudy, but dry.

January 08: Average rain, mainly in the first week, then again around the 21st and 31st.